Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde8bcb10799f095e892873c207e17a8a358d2d55332963107efe696def41a280
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $695,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $571,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $695,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 264 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 4c | 67,118$2,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,643.46 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 31,973$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.71 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 31c | 17,022$5,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,232.97 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes | 8c | 16,324$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278.97 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…f7babacked Yes | 2c | 13,190$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked No | 75c | 11,852$8,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,931.55 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 0c | 8,575$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 15c | 6,232$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.74 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 78c | 4,963$3,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.13 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 0c | 4,900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 16c | 4,510$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.33 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,109$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa275…fd87backed Yes | 6c | 3,750$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +357.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 78c | 3,492$2,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.97 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 77c | 3,481$2,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.69 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…3a33backed Yes | 19c | 3,437$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.87 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…5910backed Yes | 1c | 3,437$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 119 | 6.7%8 W · 111 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 13c | 3,350$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.19 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 3c | 3,282$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.3 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 18c | 3,254$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.04 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 21c | 3,153$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.13 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 21c | 3,130$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.42 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e4…361abacked Yes | 1c | 3,002$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 7c | 3,000$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 13c | 2,913$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.36 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 80c | 2,831$2,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.49 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,791$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…c49cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,721$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,633$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.23 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 18c | 2,608$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.86 | 138 | 17.4%24 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,565$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf670…3cb8backed Yes | 2c | 2,563$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 19c | 2,523$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.63 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 2c | 2,420$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 12c | 2,393$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.45 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,257$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,205$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.68 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…8229backed Yes | 2c | 2,110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 177 | 22.6%40 W · 137 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb087…6658backed No | 59c | 2,105$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.62 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 68c | 2,067$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.42 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Yes | 1c | 2,058$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 5c | 2,044$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.01 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 2,030$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,003$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…06fabacked Yes | 2c | 1,951$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 12c | 1,925$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.74 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 5c | 1,874$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 1,811$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 2c | 1,796$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c1…6c28backed Yes | 2c | 1,780$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9909…b90cbacked No | 72c | 1,773$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.95 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 13c | 1,764$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.93 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 17c | 1,734$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.98 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 41c | 1,730$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.23 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8914…36d5backed Yes | 6c | 1,711$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 18c | 1,679$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.26 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…8b21backed Yes | 4c | 1,515$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 218 | 16.1%35 W · 183 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 9c | 1,506$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.41 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 15c | 1,505$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.45 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes | 29c | 1,450$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.33 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 111 | 11.7%13 W · 98 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 3c | 1,332$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed No | 79c | 1,237$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.53 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 2c | 1,226$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 1c | 1,222$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 11c | 1,210$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.9 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…d091backed Yes | 27c | 1,185$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.17 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +254.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 9c | 1,183$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes | 5c | 1,156$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9476…28bcbacked Yes | 47c | 1,149$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.9 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a36…e42bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,138$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…0c3bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,103$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.51 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,024$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 9c | 1,022$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 28c | 1,007$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.26 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e06…557bbacked Yes | 2c | 999.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…dbd4backed Yes | 2c | 988.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f2…ee29backed Yes | 39c | 955.91$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9df3backed Yes | 14c | 936.52$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 11c | 924$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 2c | 917.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 5c | 904.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9429…c151backed Yes | 66c | 888.87$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.33 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 13c | 880.59$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.68 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed Yes | 3c | 863.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4288…00e8backed No | 72c | 850.11$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.86 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes | 8c | 836.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 2c | 834.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 182 | 4.4%8 W · 174 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 2c | 829.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 16c | 750.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.41 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 5c | 731.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 6c | 729.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 66c | 728.03$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.9 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed No | 31c | 715.72$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.84 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.