Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Michigan State Spartans vs. Oregon Ducks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb50c0ef6b8263e572e989d405fb56c15ea1ab317fc6e000024377266439526f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan State Spartansof Michigan State Spartans, Oregon Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Oregon Ducks | 12c | 1,858$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.72 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oregon Ducks | 15c | 1,451$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.67 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Oregon Ducks | 16c | 1,200$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Oregon Ducks | 26c | 819.81$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.14 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Michigan State Spartans | 77c | 690.58$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.45 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Oregon Ducks | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Oregon Ducks | 16c | 600.06$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Oregon Ducks | 15c | 560.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Oregon Ducks | 12c | 496.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Oregon Ducks | 22c | 495.89$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.88 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Oregon Ducks | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Oregon Ducks | 19c | 275$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Oregon Ducks | 16c | 251.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Michigan State Spartans | 72c | 247.89$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.64 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Oregon Ducks | 6c | 216.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Oregon Ducks | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Oregon Ducks | 14c | 185.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 193 | 32.1%62 W · 131 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Michigan State Spartans | 78c | 181$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Oregon Ducks | 14c | 166.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Michigan State Spartans | 76c | 147.48$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Oregon Ducks | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Oregon Ducks | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Michigan State Spartans | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 484 | 62.8%304 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…84b0backed Oregon Ducks | 33c | 114.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 299 | 54.2%162 W · 137 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…f17dbacked Oregon Ducks | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Oregon Ducks | 15c | 96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 150 | 37.3%56 W · 94 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Oregon Ducks | 17c | 86.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…564fbacked Oregon Ducks | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Oregon Ducks | 18c | 83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…97b5backed Oregon Ducks | 28c | 81.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85f7…fb66backed Oregon Ducks | 16c | 70.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9909…b90cbacked Oregon Ducks | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Oregon Ducks | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Oregon Ducks | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Michigan State Spartans | 79c | 43.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17bf…5a53backed Michigan State Spartans | 74c | 42.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -17.2wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x394b…4f55backed Michigan State Spartans | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Michigan State Spartans | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Michigan State Spartans | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 497 | 47.5%236 W · 261 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bec…37d3backed Michigan State Spartans | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…c81bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 75c | 19.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Michigan State Spartans | 80c | 17.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d74…bb57backed Michigan State Spartans | 77c | 15.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Michigan State Spartans | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Oregon Ducksthis page
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Oregon Ducks: O/U 138.5Under won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Oregon Ducks: O/U 139.5Under won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Oregon Ducks: O/U 140.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-10.5)Michigan State Spartans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.