Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf22ef0b1e8a586f58d01683d8967ad4dd3d231137683e7486616eeff480cb84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan State Spartansof Michigan State Spartans, Oregon Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 7,183$3,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,447.72 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Oregon Ducks | 48c | 4,692$2,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,237.78 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oregon Ducks | 48c | 4,427$2,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,103.12 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 1,801$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.33 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Michigan State Spartans | 53c | 1,622$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.12 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +8.9wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Oregon Ducks | 50c | 1,525$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.5 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1064…f153backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Oregon Ducks | 50c | 674.25$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.36 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Oregon Ducks | 47c | 592$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.24 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Oregon Ducks | 47c | 340.43$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Oregon Ducks | 47c | 210$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 197.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03b0…482cbacked Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 99.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Michigan State Spartans | 53c | 92.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…0b62backed Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 88.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Oregon Ducks | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Oregon Ducks | 47c | 69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 60.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Oregon Ducks | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Oregon Ducks | 47c | 41.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 378 | 35.7%135 W · 243 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Oregon Ducks | 46c | 36.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Oregon Ducks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-10.5)this page
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Oregon DucksMichigan State Spartans won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Oregon Ducks: O/U 138.5Under won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Oregon Ducks: O/U 139.5Under won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Oregon Ducks: O/U 140.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.