TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

76ers vs. Kings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
76ersof 76ers, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,498,768

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,498,768 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc0…4429backed Kings43c220,510$94,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94,819.1348343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked 76ers57c164,312$93,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,826.354539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Kings45c100,000$44,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,811.7866248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked 76ers57c99,988$56,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,994.8411955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked Kings3c68,725$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.663520%7 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Kings28c45,581$12,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,755.31,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Kings18c44,336$7,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,974.7648352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked 76ers57c43,860$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,859.6536549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Kings20c42,684$8,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,333.461,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Kings0c37,154$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1539943.1%172 W · 227 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed 76ers56c33,233$18,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,656.41,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Kings1c32,670$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.015213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked 76ers58c29,122$16,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,365.8320744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked 76ers61c26,040$15,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,191.0634851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Kings40c25,311$10,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,044.4832540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Kings0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Kings44c22,000$9,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,679.997638.2%29 W · 47 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Kings26c21,626$5,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,543.471,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kings43c21,290$9,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,075.294,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Kings41c21,286$8,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,727.3428643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed 76ers58c19,855$11,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,342.241,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Kings32c19,788$6,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,256.612,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed 76ers78c18,761$14,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,127.410952.3%57 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5b…8e29backed 76ers64c18,570$11,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,666.343063.3%19 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9909…b90cbacked 76ers78c17,000$13,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,798.920839.4%82 W · 126 L-0.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked Kings30c16,730$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0008452.4%44 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Kings41c15,801$6,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,478.341,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Kings27c15,534$4,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,260.2466250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8d7…1252backed 76ers79c15,309$12,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,148.87580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed 76ers56c15,000$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,599.9827241.9%114 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked 76ers57c14,976$8,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,474.824,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked 76ers65c14,036$9,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,961.9493148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked 76ers68c13,937$9,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,426.5162652.2%327 W · 299 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc825…4530backed Kings9c13,811$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.394231%13 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-37.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked 76ers72c12,259$8,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,444.271,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kings42c12,156$5,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,128.54,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ccc…f2dabacked 76ers79c11,550$9,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,425.435064%32 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Kings44c11,364$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00013429.9%40 W · 94 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1bd…7235backed Kings12c11,000$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.986429.7%19 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…ffbbbacked Kings40c10,303$4,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,096.89330.1%28 W · 65 L-9.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ba9…0516backed Kings6c10,216$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.787412.2%9 W · 65 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2791…2346backed Kings0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10300%0 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Kings35c10,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5001,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d26…1c15backed 76ers58c9,466$5,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,975.5222459.4%133 W · 91 L-0.6wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers68c8,999$6,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,883.498,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a7…1493backed Kings8c8,752$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.658127.2%22 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed 76ers58c8,663$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,663.4835650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Kings0c8,424$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.968820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed 76ers58c8,262$4,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,501.7362347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Kings11c8,198$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.731,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked 76ers62c8,059$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,058.7125945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Kings29c7,800$2,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,282.644252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Kings44c6,818$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Kings39c6,610$2,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.4171654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Kings43c6,305$2,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,709.722,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Kings28c6,178$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,739.839842.9%42 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed 76ers56c6,031$3,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,653.591,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked 76ers72c5,919$4,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,661.933,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Kings24c5,269$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.193,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce8b…6bc7backed 76ers61c5,234$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,034.457864.1%50 W · 28 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Kings42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1001,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c75…329abacked Kings16c5,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8005750.9%29 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x089b…2193backed Kings19c5,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.9927731.4%87 W · 190 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed 76ers57c4,924$2,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,117.3225049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Kings31c4,920$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.23,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3135…26a0backed Kings44c4,900$2,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1564360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed 76ers65c4,801$3,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.7216162.7%101 W · 60 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc95d…f13bbacked Kings32c4,624$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.563961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Kings33c4,605$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,511.2628245.4%128 W · 154 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f6e…84b4backed 76ers57c4,326$2,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.985349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Kings33c4,058$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.9327251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccea…a8ebbacked 76ers60c4,000$2,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.523348.1%112 W · 121 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Kings43c3,738$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,613.4226353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd710…cf6fbacked 76ers61c3,715$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.63933.3%13 W · 26 L-6.3wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-37.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed 76ers67c3,651$2,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.445,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Kings15c3,540$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53110743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed 76ers57c3,508$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.4412850%64 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aec…b4cebacked Kings44c3,409$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5008838.6%34 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf163…a06dbacked 76ers57c3,400$1,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4621741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Kings1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7164517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0c7…4459backed Kings2c3,273$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7111753.8%63 W · 54 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x08fe…aedfbacked 76ers57c3,269$1,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.468447.6%40 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Kings30c3,251$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.1882442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x287a…7976backed 76ers56c3,244$1,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,427.45754.4%31 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Kings19c3,166$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.311,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed 76ers63c3,142$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.4931345%141 W · 172 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Kings32c3,121$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00038143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked Kings22c3,070$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.33354.5%18 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Kings1c3,067$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.177211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kings29c3,052$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.362,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Kings32c3,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96038434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked 76ers57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.9947043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c49…dd2dbacked 76ers58c3,000$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.9820048%96 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed 76ers71c2,995$2,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.3936023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Kings9c2,882$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.762144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed 76ers67c2,813$1,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.1485344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked 76ers57c2,656$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.6811452.6%60 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Kings40c2,600$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04018651.6%96 W · 90 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c15…99adbacked 76ers59c2,585$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed 76ers56c2,509$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.023,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.