TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc95d…f13b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
59
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Lol, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 55 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT3961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
76ers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,480Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,479.56
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$105.41
Nuggets vs. Grizzliesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Spread: Hawks (-8.5)backed Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+78.8%+$78.81
Clippers vs. Pelicansbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+64.1%+$128.25
Spurs vs. Kings: O/U 232.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+82.5%+$41.25
Cavaliers vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Suns vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+140.7%+$496.56
Spread: Knicks (-13.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+79%+$157.92
Heat vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$235.29
Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 223.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Spread: Pistons (-19.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$6,985Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$5,056.35
Magic vs. Hawksbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,655Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,655.31
Grizzlies vs. Bullsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.52
Mavericks vs. Pelicansbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,499Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,498.75
Suns vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,221Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+76.8%+$1,705.44
Jazz vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$4,961Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+44.4%+$2,201.41
Pistons vs. Raptorsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$4,767Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,766.78
Timberwolves vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$981Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$298.55
Rockets vs. Nuggetsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,588Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,588.04
Cavaliers vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$444Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+150.2%+$667.08
Magic vs. Lakersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+104.1%+$104.08
Mavericks vs. Netsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+36%+$10.79
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+38.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bruins vs. Canadiensbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Bruins vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+96.8%+$96.83
Wild vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+32.3%+$258.63
All 3 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Abacked Team Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+33.3%+$16.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$2,453Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$2,452.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New Mexico Lobos vs. Nevada Wolf Packbacked New Mexico Lobos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$49.65
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.