TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Suns vs. Celtics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Celticsof Suns, Celtics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,720,115

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,720,115 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Suns23c217,391$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,999.9243542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Celtics77c209,339$161,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,147.912,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x183d…1270backed Suns24c208,524$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,0004619.6%9 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-45.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Suns22c110,928$24,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,404.21,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa491…3177backed Suns22c99,986$21,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,996.885959.3%35 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Celtics76c89,287$67,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,729.4720744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed Suns21c55,852$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,999.9911737.6%44 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Suns22c50,000$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,00096447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Suns49c46,031$22,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,584.665,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Celtics77c41,933$32,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,464.234,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…b386backed Suns23c41,638$9,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,576.843946.2%18 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+24.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4f5…1079backed Celtics68c39,259$26,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,701.225048%24 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Celtics77c32,264$24,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,523.4674748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Celtics78c31,401$24,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,908.2919954.8%109 W · 90 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Celtics41c30,325$12,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,753.9883039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Suns22c28,904$6,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,376.6932540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Suns40c27,899$11,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,140.948845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Suns25c26,300$6,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,514.989018.9%17 W · 73 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab5b…316cbacked Celtics80c26,232$20,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,360.631080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+55.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0287…8a29backed Suns22c25,575$5,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,659.831118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-66.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Suns0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…c2a4backed Suns9c23,818$2,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,147.654337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Celtics76c23,115$17,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,480.014,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Suns1c22,729$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.2964517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Suns22c21,243$4,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,683.294,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Celtics77c21,000$16,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,829.9157950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Suns23c20,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Celtics76c19,803$15,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,755.741,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Suns29c19,789$5,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,712.631,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…e17dbacked Suns23c18,000$4,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1405032%16 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76ab…506dbacked Celtics77c18,000$13,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,139.994551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Celtics77c17,757$13,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0522,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Celtics74c16,745$12,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,272.389,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Suns20c16,579$3,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,297.2772241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Suns22c16,500$3,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,554.947028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Celtics78c16,280$12,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,576.661,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Suns26c15,889$4,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,165.1266248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Celtics76c15,205$11,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,594.824,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Celtics78c14,873$11,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,304.432,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2c…097cbacked Celtics77c14,350$11,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,300.413177.4%24 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x22c6…cf2abacked Suns23c14,000$3,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2201838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Suns52c13,093$6,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,846.9926353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Celtics76c13,043$9,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,101.242,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa89c…398fbacked Suns26c11,129$2,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,928.612524.8%31 W · 94 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Celtics78c10,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Suns26c10,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.9810530.5%32 W · 73 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Suns28c9,470$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,666.538,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1d…55d0backed Suns27c9,259$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Celtics75c8,960$6,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,216.7193148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Celtics76c8,647$6,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,075.352532%8 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-40.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7afa…3f6dbacked Celtics77c8,250$6,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,897.51643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd472…cc7cbacked Suns23c7,991$1,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,837.832236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Suns22c7,956$1,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,720.8447043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0441…b3aabacked Celtics77c7,600$5,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7488441.7%35 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f04…73d5backed Suns23c7,600$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.995444.4%24 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcddb…0d22backed Celtics77c7,473$5,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.7422857.5%131 W · 97 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfec6…f355backed Suns23c6,700$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5413847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1d…3846backed Celtics77c6,700$5,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5416943.5%30 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked Suns31c6,452$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008452.4%44 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ea…6e4ebacked Celtics73c6,422$4,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,734.1416146%74 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Celtics77c6,279$4,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.2639842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Suns16c6,127$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00013534.1%46 W · 89 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Celtics77c5,963$4,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,371.4155346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01f5…5cfbbacked Suns24c5,919$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40016421.3%35 W · 129 L-10.7wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Suns16c5,833$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.9181529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Celtics69c5,604$3,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.3476850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Celtics48c5,208$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,708.337638.2%29 W · 47 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Celtics78c5,128$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.211,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Suns22c5,091$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1208026.3%21 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Suns22c5,050$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.991,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Celtics78c5,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Suns23c4,879$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.191,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Celtics75c4,854$3,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.089350.5%47 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Suns20c4,771$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.2428241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Suns22c4,500$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99012745.7%58 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe584…6e7abacked Celtics77c4,362$3,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.261650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x539f…9b53backed Suns23c4,359$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.571330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Celtics44c4,099$1,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.6689444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Celtics34c4,008$1,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.111,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa3b…d6b7backed Celtics77c4,000$3,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9205658.9%33 W · 23 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+21.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0614…1245backed Suns23c4,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ba9…0516backed Suns16c4,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6507412.2%9 W · 65 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe948…61e1backed Celtics77c3,973$3,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.83351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Celtics48c3,940$1,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,048.850241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x613b…823abacked Celtics78c3,930$3,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.1411344.2%50 W · 63 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd857…c092backed Celtics76c3,929$2,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.077142.3%30 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc95d…f13bbacked Celtics57c3,927$2,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.443961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Celtics78c3,869$3,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.2335650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked Celtics78c3,637$2,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.1814061.4%86 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Suns20c3,550$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.442,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd58…c1c4backed Celtics77c3,535$2,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.011758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Celtics78c3,528$2,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.6334851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3335…3656backed Celtics78c3,500$2,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7708759.8%52 W · 35 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+33.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb338…c3febacked Suns23c3,500$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-49.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b8…d473backed Celtics77c3,354$2,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.425100%5 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+77.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x66c4…2852backed Celtics78c3,350$2,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73711358.4%66 W · 47 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Celtics77c3,255$2,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.7623850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Celtics77c3,244$2,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.1556453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161b…acc2backed Suns23c3,243$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7461540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Celtics76c3,207$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.313,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.