TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Hornets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hornetsof Heat, Hornets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,772,713

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,772,713 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,038 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x05f6…8cecbacked Hornets65c144,734$93,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,747.182441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…78dfbacked Heat36c127,000$45,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,649.97837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Hornets66c111,174$73,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,799.2436549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Hornets65c84,010$54,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,403.661,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Heat34c64,118$21,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,799.991,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Heat35c60,412$21,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,144.223147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Heat35c60,000$20,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,7001,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Heat37c55,518$20,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,587.2732540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Heat35c49,847$17,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,446.6211241.1%46 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Hornets65c49,634$32,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,372.0634456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb12d…f73cbacked Hornets63c43,207$27,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,106.659655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Heat35c41,125$14,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,422.410930.3%33 W · 76 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0fa…4c42backed Hornets61c40,165$24,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,664.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hornets69c37,694$26,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,687.594,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Hornets61c35,086$21,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,757.81,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat36c33,710$12,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,122.584,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Heat35c33,520$11,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,798.8241832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Heat35c30,638$10,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,638.624,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Heat18c22,407$4,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,062.283039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Hornets66c20,032$13,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,904.6362652.2%327 W · 299 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hornets68c19,985$13,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,424.441,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xada5…c2a4backed Heat37c19,978$7,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,391.344337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcae4…e479backed Heat36c19,552$7,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,016.643151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Heat42c18,868$7,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,830.434851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Heat38c17,293$6,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,617.4362347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x532f…e626backed Hornets78c17,268$13,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,868.635360.4%32 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Hornets66c17,000$11,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,799.9610952.3%57 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hornets63c16,231$10,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,049.384,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Heat36c16,113$5,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,743.68154.3%44 W · 37 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a84…ffbbbacked Heat41c15,634$6,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,4109330.1%28 W · 65 L-9.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat33c15,494$5,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,186.549,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Heat35c15,000$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,25054539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Hornets70c15,000$10,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,477.083,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Hornets60c14,000$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,60039842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Heat36c13,889$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0008662.8%54 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Hornets62c13,729$8,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,235.6639349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Hornets61c12,995$7,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,068.0528554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Hornets66c12,620$8,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,292.3195848.7%467 W · 491 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Heat24c12,400$3,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0161,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Hornets64c11,820$7,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,213.121,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1d…55d0backed Heat22c11,048$2,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,375.31050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Heat38c11,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.9647043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Heat30c10,979$3,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,336.933,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Heat35c10,948$3,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,886.491,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1110…f2d7backed Heat1c10,716$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995330.2%16 W · 37 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Heat35c10,100$3,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,53535251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14cc…7c02backed Hornets58c10,042$5,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,217.713842.8%59 W · 79 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa31…924fbacked Hornets60c10,001$6,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,000.42070%14 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+22.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Hornets65c10,000$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,50027241.9%114 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaff…f689backed Heat40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.992231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hornets73c9,669$7,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,595.565,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fa…5e3fbacked Heat43c8,860$3,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,809.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8427…6824backed Heat43c8,800$3,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,78410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85ef…5513backed Hornets57c8,760$4,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,766.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+119.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec52…8e32backed Hornets57c8,760$4,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,766.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+119.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ffc…1e9fbacked Hornets57c8,700$4,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,736.842100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+119.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77e9…526ebacked Hornets57c8,700$4,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7412100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+119.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x897d…6ebfbacked Heat43c8,660$3,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,723.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x089a…01f5backed Heat43c8,600$3,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,69810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Hornets60c8,333$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.3352760%316 W · 211 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Heat40c8,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20020349.8%101 W · 102 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Hornets75c7,806$5,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,976.3326353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Hornets64c6,945$4,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,500.131,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Heat16c6,938$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.0836023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30d1…cd88backed Heat36c6,170$2,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,221.24151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat26c5,883$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.958,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Heat38c5,814$2,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.4865939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Heat35c5,808$2,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,054.1885344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Heat35c5,714$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00011249.1%55 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Heat36c5,461$1,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,984.8443438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d90…1310backed Hornets77c5,453$4,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.7115274.3%113 W · 39 L+22.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+24.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd071…033abacked Heat37c5,300$1,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9611735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid+6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Heat37c5,122$1,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,871.2586641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Heat36c5,000$1,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,787.6650239%196 W · 306 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fb…33dfbacked Heat40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.991546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe06…d5d5backed Heat35c4,750$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,662.57143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Heat0c4,500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.258820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2abf…977fbacked Hornets65c4,500$2,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.99683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aec…b4cebacked Heat35c4,286$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5008838.6%34 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00d5…ed84backed Hornets62c4,174$2,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.1217050%85 W · 85 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e07…f048backed Heat35c4,135$1,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,447.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Heat22c4,126$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.4342335.9%152 W · 271 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Hornets66c4,121$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,401.1424744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc364…c413backed Hornets61c4,000$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5601662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f86…e539backed Heat40c4,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6001637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Heat1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2064517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Hornets62c3,936$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,495.6819957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Heat29c3,870$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.789444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce8b…6bc7backed Hornets65c3,846$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.157864.1%50 W · 28 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Heat35c3,829$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.991,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Hornets63c3,803$2,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.1174748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Heat34c3,689$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.272450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Heat36c3,576$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.241652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Heat1c3,560$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.67211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb187…bbe1backed Heat35c3,411$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.712729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5208…15e0backed Heat40c3,400$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46b0…913dbacked Hornets60c3,390$2,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Heat35c3,304$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.551,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe584…6e7abacked Hornets60c3,276$1,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.41650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Heat32c3,270$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.3238540.3%155 W · 230 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.