NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfea8a3cf0f0aa9f4ae08064d971c62a2da291bed643b5c745fcd75e364828404

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $131,292

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,292 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Under	50c	53,903$26,951 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26,951.34	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Over	50c	28,818$14,409 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,409	293	51.5%151 W · 142 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	50c	21,277$10,638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,638.46	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Over	50c	15,000$7,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,500	584	49.7%290 W · 294 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	50c	15,000$7,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,500	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under	50c	13,956$6,978 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,978	1,044	47.5%496 W · 548 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b6…9a9bbacked Over	50c	13,200$6,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,600	50	30%15 W · 35 L	-6.0wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	50c	5,078$2,527 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,551.08	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Over	50c	4,000$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,000	579	50.1%290 W · 289 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under	51c	3,691$1,882 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,882.25	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	50c	3,600$1,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,800	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over	50c	3,289$1,644 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,645.14	182	41.2%75 W · 107 L	-17.6wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0xb307…be4abacked Over	51c	2,157$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,056.86	188	42.6%80 W · 108 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	+2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Under	64c	1,818$1,161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,160.72	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Under	51c	1,700$867 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$867	442	52.3%231 W · 211 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	49c	1,629$798 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$830.88	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over	29c	1,163$339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$824.43	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	50c	1,162$580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$581.51	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe33f…eed7backed Over	49c	1,120$549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$571.18	39	43.6%17 W · 22 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	50c	1,056$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.85	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	50c	900$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Under	51c	590.2$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	358	49.7%178 W · 180 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	49c	564.84$279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$285.92	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under	16c	499.18$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.05	522	30.3%158 W · 364 L	+20.4wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under	51c	440$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.3	1,384	39.4%545 W · 839 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf469…dcaabacked Over	50c	436.12$218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$218.06	221	54.8%121 W · 100 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over	50c	425$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212.5	1,150	49.5%569 W · 581 L	-12.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Over	49c	400$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.45	324	50.3%163 W · 161 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Under	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	382	42.9%164 W · 218 L	-11.5wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	64c	399.87$254 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.67	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under	36c	390$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.4	214	43.9%94 W · 120 L	+7.8wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over	49c	382.35$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.07	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under	51c	381$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.31	348	51.7%180 W · 168 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5142…ee20backed Over	49c	327.66$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.66	53	54.7%29 W · 24 L	+4.3wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb227…8809backed Over	50c	300$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	111	57.7%64 W · 47 L	+7.4wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Over	50c	280$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140	521	46.6%243 W · 278 L	-14.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Over	50c	280$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140	456	46.7%213 W · 243 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Under	51c	274.44$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.32	576	50%288 W · 288 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b7b…9ab9backed Under	76c	263.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	274	62%170 W · 104 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	660	46.4%306 W · 354 L	-21.9wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	434	47.5%206 W · 228 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Under	51c	188.54$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.94	514	38.7%199 W · 315 L	-29.6wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa55d…001ebacked Under	52c	153.85$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	48	37.5%18 W · 30 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Over	49c	150.15$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.57	1,141	48%548 W · 593 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Over	50c	150$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	282	43.3%122 W · 160 L	-13.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Over	50c	140$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	565	47.8%270 W · 295 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc53…2bb7backed Over	58c	126.19$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.3	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	31cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fb2…eb78backed Over	29c	120$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.2	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	+2.8wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6276…7f2ebacked Over	77c	103.15$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.79	191	66.5%127 W · 64 L	+7.1wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over	47c	100$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	596	50.3%300 W · 296 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Under	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	103	48.5%50 W · 53 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	421	53%223 W · 198 L	+23.3wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Under	51c	99.99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	103	49.5%51 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Over	50c	99.78$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.06	917	46.9%430 W · 487 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Under	77c	96.53$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over	49c	94.25$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.62	766	53.5%410 W · 356 L	+65.5wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x647c…a772backed Over	50c	89.2$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.6	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed Over	50c	85.7$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.85	208	47.1%98 W · 110 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over	45c	82.15$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.18	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Under	16c	74.56$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	1,055	49.9%526 W · 529 L	+29.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1a…8984backed Over	38c	73.98$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.51	55	40%22 W · 33 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7101…1441backed Over	37c	73.93$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.23	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.61per pick	39cpaid	+155.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Over	50c	70$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	340	47.1%160 W · 180 L	-10.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over	50c	70$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	572	50%286 W · 286 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed Over	23c	63.53$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.92	188	35.1%66 W · 122 L	+24.5wins	+0.13per pick	22cpaid	+116.5%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x461b…30ddbacked Under	52c	57.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	-6.1wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0339…1394backed Over	50c	54$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	130	45.4%59 W · 71 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde2…3fcfbacked Under	51c	49.41$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.15	89	56.2%50 W · 39 L	+5.1wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeca1…57e4backed Under	52c	46.4$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.13	192	45.3%87 W · 105 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e7c…db55backed Under	51c	46$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.56	50	42%21 W · 29 L	-4.0wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Over	49c	41$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.91	327	47.4%155 W · 172 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Under	30c	36.39$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.07	122	27%33 W · 89 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Under	58c	35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	182	42.9%78 W · 104 L	-10.6wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30ab…f338backed Under	51c	30.12$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	273	50.2%137 W · 136 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over	43c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.25	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdd6…24c5backed Over	50c	28$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9368…8b01backed Over	50c	25.78$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.89	56	55.4%31 W · 25 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a67…0b8abacked Under	51c	25.49$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	239	50.6%121 W · 118 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f8…2869backed Over	40c	25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	174	59.2%103 W · 71 L	+7.6wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x727b…0426backed Under	74c	22.85$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.85	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c4c…b7b8backed Under	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	150	54%81 W · 69 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb860…e71fbacked Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe748…bc49backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	234	53%124 W · 110 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5this page
1H Spread: Hornets (-1.5)Hornets won
1H Spread: Hornets (-2.5)Heat won
1H Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Heat won
Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 21.5No won
Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Coby White: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
Heat vs. HornetsHornets won
Heat vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
Heat vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
Heat vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5Over won
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Over won
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Over won
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Over won
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Over won
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Over won
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 237.5Over won
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 239.5Over won
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 241.5Over won
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 242.5Under won
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Kel'el Ware: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
Kon Knueppel: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Hornets won
Spread: Hornets (-4.5)Hornets won
Spread: Hornets (-5.5)Hornets won
Spread: Hornets (-6.5)Hornets won
Spread: Hornets (-7.5)Hornets won
Spread: Hornets (-8.5)Hornets won
Spread: Hornets (-9.5)Hornets won
Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Tyler Herro: Points O/U 21.5No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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