TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Hornets: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Hornetsof Heat, Hornets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,504

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,504 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5a73…e1adbacked Heat41c1,054$427 inLost-$4273627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hornets60c477.48$284 inWon+$193.354,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f4…8c1ebacked Hornets63c393$248 inWon+$145.455759.6%34 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8873…09fcbacked Hornets63c328.37$207 inWon+$121.627848.7%38 W · 40 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2702…a103backed Heat40c125$50 inLost-$507753.2%41 W · 36 L+8.1wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd983…d92dbacked Heat41c123.02$50 inLost-$5029844%131 W · 167 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Hornets57c102$58 inWon+$43.862,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Hornets59c100$59 inWon+$4195548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Hornets62c100$62 inWon+$3828657.3%164 W · 122 L+1.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a5…328ebacked Hornets63c97.49$62 inWon+$35.9810844.4%48 W · 60 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heat38c90$34 inLost-$34.21,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Hornets63c79.37$50 inWon+$29.3760250.5%304 W · 298 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Hornets60c41.13$25 inWon+$16.4521443.9%94 W · 120 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hornets59c25.9$15 inWon+$10.625,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa923…6704backed Heat43c23.26$10 inLost-$102850%14 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Hornets57c23.26$13 inWon+$1062049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d13…cd85backed Hornets63c19.05$12 inWon+$7.05650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.