TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$328,472

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $328,472 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over52c129,201$67,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,016.6843542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under48c56,795$27,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,111.851,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under48c56,439$27,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,018.554,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under48c43,656$20,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,831.631,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over54c25,000$13,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,499.981,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Over52c25,000$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,999.9860351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c21,303$10,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,110.139,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed Under48c20,833$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00011737.6%44 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Under47c19,000$8,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,929.9829245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa24a…d9fabacked Under0c14,620$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.621936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Over53c9,434$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,433.9626648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Under49c8,163$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x287a…7976backed Under46c7,852$3,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,625.085754.4%31 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73a2…f57fbacked Over51c7,843$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,843.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Over53c6,000$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,82058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe632…4428backed Over53c5,639$2,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,650.53540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3501,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Under49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45057950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Under46c4,880$2,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,244.832150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Over51c4,872$2,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,387.3619445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under48c4,537$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.524,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7088…8b9bbacked Over52c4,311$2,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,071.59850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Under49c3,980$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950.25251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Under46c3,967$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,824.8237747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bee…a369backed Under47c3,292$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,538.468148.1%39 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Under47c3,191$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…7a80backed Over51c2,900$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,421450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Over53c2,723$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.3534854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Over52c2,486$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,193.271,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Over51c2,342$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.5870246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over53c2,339$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.721,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Under48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6da6…7d01backed Over51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.788647.7%41 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Over52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.0126637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Under49c1,612$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.8337842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1632…cb68backed Under49c995$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.555040%20 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0556…132abacked Over53c988$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.369346.2%43 W · 50 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Under47c851.06$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40067252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under28c662.73$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.218,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x190f…01f3backed Over52c616$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.689150.5%46 W · 45 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x515f…7e7fbacked Under48c602.02$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.974639.1%18 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Over80c601.17$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.6820963.2%132 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Over52c566.44$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.1558450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under48c531.25$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25571449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Over53c498.8$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.4441947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ece…8786backed Over53c443.38$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.392864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+27.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed Under12c428.19$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3718835.1%66 W · 122 L+24.5wins+0.13per pick22cpaid+116.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x300d…978fbacked Over53c410.31$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.9110752.3%56 W · 51 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf469…dcaabacked Over54c406.81$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.1222154.8%121 W · 100 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Over53c406.58$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.096147.5%29 W · 32 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under48c398.78$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.143,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x97d3…8acebacked Over51c388.67$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.454740.4%19 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Over53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3611242%47 W · 65 L-13.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-22.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed Under47c321$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.8714145.4%64 W · 77 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3218…a011backed Under47c321$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.871010%1 W · 9 L-4.0wins-0.40per pick50cpaid-80.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x9737…09c1backed Under47c320.96$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.854240.5%17 W · 25 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x765d…610bbacked Under49c315.96$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed Under48c312.5$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020247.5%96 W · 106 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under48c312.5$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15039552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8c…505fbacked Under48c310.27$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.931145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under48c308.75$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.24,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a0d…82c9backed Under48c297$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.566949.3%34 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf288…3c08backed Over53c283.02$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.022755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over54c261.72$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.392,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Under50c260$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13023446.2%108 W · 126 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Over53c239.12$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.3930453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58dc…59e4backed Over53c235.85$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.856538.5%25 W · 40 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x353e…9db2backed Over54c235$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.115738.6%22 W · 35 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under48c229.04$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.164844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2aa3…9b44backed Under48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002065%13 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under47c208$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.761,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x443b…e8bbbacked Over53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6813750.4%69 W · 68 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdae4…f1fcbacked Over53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6819054.7%104 W · 86 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2e0…d084backed Over54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1922447.8%107 W · 117 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb69…c773backed Over54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1913148.9%64 W · 67 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93f1…b99dbacked Over53c183.96$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4614466%95 W · 49 L+17.1wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+20.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x34f9…ebf6backed Over53c175$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.257460.8%45 W · 29 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcd8…9908backed Over52c170.6$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8922552.4%118 W · 107 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd30…c3a0backed Under47c161$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.674544.4%20 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over53c156$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3226756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfab0…e0f5backed Under47c155.57$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.128658.1%50 W · 36 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Over53c149.65$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3489853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94bb…6807backed Under48c148$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.044452.3%23 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4630…1968backed Over53c119.57$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.212650%63 W · 63 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked Under48c119$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1222351.6%115 W · 108 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over52c108.78$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.213,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Under46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5066046.4%306 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Under65c108.5$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4452052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9094…dcabbacked Over53c108$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7623655.5%131 W · 105 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b7…7491backed Over53c102.41$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1310955%60 W · 49 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4659650.3%300 W · 296 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5095548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb95…a5ccbacked Under48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4824442.6%104 W · 140 L-17.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb92b…cc3fbacked Over35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed Under50c97.69$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6520847.1%98 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Under47c94.34$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3442153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94c4…2a41backed Over53c91.98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2322953.3%122 W · 107 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over53c90.81$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6889048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc308…c3b9backed Over53c89.06$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8631354.6%171 W · 142 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.