Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x551b26e301c0c1b06502d0e894abeea64f6afa06f04bb446977e4ed5fe825e48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Team Lynx, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac70…2d8dbacked Spirit Academy | 44c | 8,572$3,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,756.28 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Team Lynx | 60c | 7,235$4,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,922.65 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…f1abbacked Spirit Academy | 1c | 5,555$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Lynx | 57c | 2,501$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.19 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Spirit Academy | 10c | 2,351$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.37 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc1…9932backed Team Lynx | 70c | 1,250$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Spirit Academy | 41c | 724.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Spirit Academy | 7c | 723.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Lynx | 76c | 705.66$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.82 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Spirit Academy | 6c | 699.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Team Lynx | 60c | 679.75$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.9 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 60c | 662.73$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.65 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…6239backed Spirit Academy | 23c | 650$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.63 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Spirit Academy | 39c | 590.28$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.36 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Spirit Academy | 11c | 556.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed Team Lynx | 44c | 500$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.15 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Lynx | 62c | 429.42$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.78 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Team Lynx | 62c | 401.51$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.57 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Team Lynx | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…03bbbacked Team Lynx | 65c | 347.9$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.98 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Team Lynx | 61c | 262.3$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe73f…1989backed Team Lynx | 50c | 250.39$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.43per pick | 55cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c76…0569backed Team Lynx | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…804ebacked Team Lynx | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Lynx | 73c | 194.93$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Lynx | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…a5b8backed Spirit Academy | 60c | 167.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Team Lynx | 63c | 153.76$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Spirit Academy | 21c | 140.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Team Lynx | 66c | 139.09$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Spirit Academy | 38c | 132.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Spirit Academy | 41c | 126.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Team Lynx | 61c | 117$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…9cf6backed Spirit Academy | 24c | 110.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Spirit Academy | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Team Lynx | 55c | 92.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Spirit Academy | 34c | 92.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Team Lynx | 60c | 88.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…50bcbacked Spirit Academy | 60c | 79.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Team Lynx | 58c | 70.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…f13bbacked Team Lynx | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Spirit Academy | 61c | 65.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…5fbbbacked Spirit Academy | 27c | 62.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…24c2backed Spirit Academy | 20c | 54.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 130 | 61.5%80 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Team Lynx | 65c | 52.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4287…3d5ebacked Spirit Academy | 26c | 50.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Team Lynx | 65c | 47.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Spirit Academy | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefcc…4883backed Team Lynx | 57c | 39.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e04…3fb0backed Team Lynx | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Spirit Academy | 43c | 34.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Team Lynx | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…e1abbacked Team Lynx | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…3367backed Team Lynx | 64c | 28.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…eaa0backed Team Lynx | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285d…f500backed Spirit Academy | 47c | 26.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…3b29backed Team Lynx | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Team Lynx | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 52 | 80.8%42 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…1457backed Team Lynx | 77c | 24.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2020…3b53backed Team Lynx | 52c | 20.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…cb7cbacked Team Lynx | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Team Lynx | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Spirit Academy | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…8ff5backed Team Lynx | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985b…6b7fbacked Team Lynx | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7613…8a5ebacked Team Lynx | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e6…ac47backed Team Lynx | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39e9…7d6abacked Team Lynx | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…1be3backed Team Lynx | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef0…25edbacked Team Lynx | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 WinnerTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.