Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2422fc721e6498dad604a08a05cf3378533e8c415f60ab6d6d11af42e827b27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Team Lynx, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac70…2d8dbacked Spirit Academy | 42c | 5,873$2,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,441.85 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Team Lynx | 60c | 5,460$3,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,185.79 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Lynx | 59c | 1,445$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.82 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Spirit Academy | 10c | 899.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Team Lynx | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Spirit Academy | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…03bbbacked Spirit Academy | 38c | 207.38$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b8…c5cabacked Spirit Academy | 48c | 183.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Spirit Academy | 24c | 181$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Spirit Academy | 24c | 84.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Team Lynx | 78c | 77.53$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…a75bbacked Spirit Academy | 38c | 45.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd152…7b86backed Spirit Academy | 28c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Team Lynx | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Spirit Academy | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Team Lynx | 66c | 18.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group ATeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.