TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Nets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Mavericks, Nets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,277,871
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,348,650

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,277,871 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 958 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Mavericks54c237,444$128,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109,224.3243542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Nets46c185,973$85,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85,470.6887144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Nets48c80,000$38,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,40029650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Mavericks52c60,000$31,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,8001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Nets46c49,473$22,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,749.782,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Mavericks52c38,541$20,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,372.831,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Nets17c24,217$4,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,069.451,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x02b8…4b6dbacked Mavericks54c22,399$12,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,303.414100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+132.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nets46c22,253$10,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,3394,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Mavericks53c21,826$11,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,258.4511252.7%59 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Nets48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60017251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Mavericks52c20,000$10,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,599.9477348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Mavericks54c19,840$10,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,126.171,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Nets47c16,639$7,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,820.2128649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Mavericks60c15,850$9,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,404.762,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Mavericks61c14,849$9,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,742.6542348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed Mavericks51c14,800$7,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,251.9811737.6%44 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Nets47c14,459$6,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,795.7230845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks53c13,264$7,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,219.34,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nets30c12,994$3,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,921.344,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Mavericks52c12,493$6,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,996.4528643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4c9…cd97backed Nets46c11,800$5,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4288640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbab7…bc7cbacked Mavericks54c11,800$6,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,427.969054.4%49 W · 41 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27dd…c66abacked Nets46c11,208$5,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,155.720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4891…0b2cbacked Nets46c11,159$5,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,132.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nets24c10,616$2,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,598.173,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Nets47c10,542$4,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,964.9418747.1%88 W · 99 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Nets15c10,254$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.881,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Mavericks79c10,091$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,090.712649.2%62 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Mavericks52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,799.951,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3280…ea74backed Nets47c9,367$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4009531.6%30 W · 65 L-11.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Nets47c9,301$4,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,40620948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb7…e8e5backed Nets4c9,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Nets26c8,555$2,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,192.7948956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nets30c7,882$2,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,330.363,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Mavericks53c7,880$4,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,703.65655.4%31 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Nets46c7,777$3,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,583.236741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Nets12c7,698$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.3729352.6%154 W · 139 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Nets47c7,463$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.6820849.5%103 W · 105 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Nets46c7,012$3,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,225.5387750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Mavericks55c6,972$3,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,137.3913959.7%83 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nets27c6,805$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840.345,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Nets23c6,604$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.491,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Nets47c6,500$3,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,054.8324549%120 W · 125 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Nets46c6,462$3,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,003.9441832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked Mavericks77c6,461$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,461.378061.3%49 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Nets48c6,248$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9991,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e1…15dbbacked Nets46c5,400$2,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,484650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e9…1682backed Mavericks54c5,400$2,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,483.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Mavericks52c5,393$2,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,588.6772450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Mavericks56c5,261$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,340.0651844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Nets48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.9918547%87 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Nets47c4,800$2,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,255.9918553%98 W · 87 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc35a…1ccdbacked Mavericks54c4,500$2,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,069.731266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+39.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Nets2c4,071$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.425213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Nets48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92038649.7%192 W · 194 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Nets48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Nets46c4,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,839.9879549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Nets47c3,741$1,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,758.143148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdab7…24ecbacked Mavericks66c3,637$2,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.716065%104 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Nets30c3,606$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.253,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Nets46c3,413$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569.9165750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Mavericks73c3,293$2,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.013,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed Nets47c3,252$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.444443.2%19 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nets30c3,162$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.458,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Nets32c3,145$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.120638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f06…216ebacked Mavericks54c3,002$1,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.861070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+57.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Mavericks53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4101,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Mavericks54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,38012547.2%59 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa3b…d6b7backed Nets45c3,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.955658.9%33 W · 23 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+21.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6d1…109bbacked Nets45c2,996$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.081637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3a7…97febacked Mavericks52c2,920$1,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,401.84070%28 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6589…a51dbacked Mavericks54c2,896$1,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.171172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+33.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Mavericks55c2,831$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.4951354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc917…7ff9backed Mavericks55c2,815$1,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.753100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Nets27c2,732$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.6440243.8%176 W · 226 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Nets46c2,717$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25048938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee92…4668backed Nets46c2,680$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8614…c2b4backed Mavericks54c2,680$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe998…b7f0backed Nets47c2,665$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.63040%12 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16d8…ca88backed Mavericks55c2,615$1,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eee…a593backed Nets46c2,600$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1961631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Nets47c2,587$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,216.092,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Nets45c2,453$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.8519958.3%116 W · 83 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Nets33c2,424$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80042827.3%117 W · 311 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…84c9backed Mavericks55c2,420$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0893100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ced…e5e1backed Nets46c2,404$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.941936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-26.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Mavericks75c2,305$1,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.375,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Mavericks78c2,248$1,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.8876850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeaf…f14bbacked Nets48c2,200$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0561154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Nets47c2,146$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00041954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Nets47c2,145$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.0324942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Mavericks71c2,144$1,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.9585344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc9b…4238backed Nets41c2,139$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.146639.4%26 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nets46c2,104$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.779,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1193…bbc7backed Mavericks55c2,082$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.011450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks55c2,081$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.934,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Nets47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94054443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93e7…cc0cbacked Mavericks53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9406352.4%33 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Nets46c2,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.9886641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.