NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Nets: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cbcf30f1327572e9b912000309f19d45d92bb7690604cea92886c190c9f9727
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd12c…f2d4backed Over | 52c | 30,397$15,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,620.79 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 11,683$5,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,607.99 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 5,956$2,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880.69 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Under | 48c | 3,960$1,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 48c | 2,260$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.44 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596b…c1ecbacked Under | 48c | 1,943$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 1,539$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.79 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 858.45$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.13 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 503.25$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.04 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 349.69$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.73 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 47c | 299.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.21 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 163.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 136.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 48c | 131$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 48c | 115.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 46c | 83.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 83.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 45c | 48.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 52c | 41.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 370 | 37.3%138 W · 232 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 46c | 31.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…b15cbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9d…8d82backed Under | 48c | 21.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Nets: O/U 224.5this page
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Danny Wolf: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Egor Demin: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Mavericks vs. NetsMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Nets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Nicolas Claxton: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.