Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City vs. Chelsea end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d99202b1266e3bb605189a2d79c870616904711eb756a2018f154b7a1c868be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 67c | 3,671$2,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.09 | 147 | 32.7%48 W · 99 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 65c | 1,565$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.19 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed No | 74c | 1,408$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.27 | 166 | 60.8%101 W · 65 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 35c | 1,400$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 24c | 1,342$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.38 | 200 | 40.5%81 W · 119 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 25c | 1,300$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…50c2backed No | 76c | 1,150$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Yes | 26c | 1,145$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…1712backed Yes | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 25c | 703.78$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.79 | 208 | 19.2%40 W · 168 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 74c | 697.31$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.3 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6860…ef1fbacked Yes | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 25c | 581.36$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.34 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…11b5backed Yes | 27c | 569.18$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.67 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 75c | 523.78$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.94 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…73e3backed Yes | 33c | 498.24$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 34c | 476.29$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 91 | 34.1%31 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea6…1550backed Yes | 26c | 387.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 73c | 384.12$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.61 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 41c | 303$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.73 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 74c | 303$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 561 | 58.6%329 W · 232 L | +29.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…6a75backed Yes | 34c | 291.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 24c | 255$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 76c | 207.69$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…ba27backed No | 66c | 201.82$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae0…b9c9backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3025…fccdbacked Yes | 25c | 186.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…7cd2backed Yes | 58c | 171.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x978b…9746backed Yes | 25c | 165.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 41c | 159.32$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 197 | 43.7%86 W · 111 L | +32.4wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…81e6backed No | 75c | 134$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…6658backed No | 74c | 121.81$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb29b…9e76backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…1230backed Yes | 25c | 101.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…adc0backed No | 77c | 101$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d2…c25dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed37…5849backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…53c8backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…fe4bbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 28c | 91.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3e…f062backed Yes | 26c | 89.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…f87dbacked Yes | 24c | 87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f3…22babacked Yes | 25c | 81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 182 | 32.4%59 W · 123 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92be…d717backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…6b67backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 77cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…b387backed Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…4072backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 73c | 59.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 25c | 55.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…e316backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…f3fbbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…e223backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…4e00backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e40…4d57backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 57c | 35.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 43c | 35.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed No | 74c | 35.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…fcd6backed Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…4831backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 209 | 58.9%123 W · 86 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6173…4258backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -29%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City vs. Chelsea end in a draw?this page
- Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-25?No won
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.