TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Trudeau out before April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$425,128
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$396,377

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $425,128 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 610 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x25a9…f991backed No0c91,498$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7150%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No4c17,241$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.387650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No0c17,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed Yes76c14,645$11,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,558.962420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-71%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No2c8,810$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.27780%0 W · 78 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No21c5,721$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.252147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef6d…9bd2backed No27c5,540$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.0830%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked No5c5,298$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.123318.2%6 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-75.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1748…890cbacked No2c4,805$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.23128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-84.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8081…6d62backed No25c4,010$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.7330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked No23c3,419$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.432729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c56…2845backed Yes74c2,922$2,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.44771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+36.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9980…e0b2backed No10c2,729$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.04333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc78d…7328backed No27c2,710$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x054b…2339backed No23c2,690$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.1940%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc30a…1a0dbacked No20c2,656$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.212343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e47…a9a9backed No38c2,652$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba68…ce61backed No35c2,507$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ee…ec14backed No26c2,425$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.321338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f29…dd03backed Yes79c2,415$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.096434.4%22 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6454…5053backed No25c2,400$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc0…d9f4backed No21c2,337$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.68812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-67.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No1c2,270$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.142931%9 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d1b…537dbacked Yes67c2,197$1,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No26c2,185$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.163030%9 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+640.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1da…8f6abacked Yes68c2,032$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa244…dc58backed No36c2,009$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fb…ea3dbacked No33c2,001$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a4b…06cabacked No27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2e4…3fd4backed No26c2,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No19c1,976$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.9920614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf369…acb6backed No10c1,907$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.66616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-71.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ad…9848backed Yes76c1,900$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05a4…27cfbacked No34c1,861$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.92119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-62.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes69c1,790$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.3912040%48 W · 72 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd77…3ddbbacked No1c1,677$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea33…28a3backed No4c1,642$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7851backed Yes72c1,600$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.992941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b5a…00f2backed No30c1,488$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.86147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-68.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb49…a264backed Yes71c1,450$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked No6c1,396$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.777125.4%18 W · 53 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x717a…1b62backed No10c1,384$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No13c1,383$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6515230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x93af…a2e7backed Yes73c1,360$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d7d…8406backed Yes73c1,350$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4954…e398backed No1c1,303$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes74c1,296$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.868838.6%34 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b12…e0f7backed Yes78c1,282$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No19c1,277$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.458921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+105.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x815a…04cebacked Yes75c1,250$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e8…77d2backed No27c1,240$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.96633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes68c1,230$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.258231.7%26 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff9…201ebacked Yes75c1,200$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3607…c08bbacked No28c1,187$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.151442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fea…d383backed No2c1,166$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.33714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-76.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes67c1,101$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.57238.9%28 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07a5…c2fdbacked No33c1,100$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0506…acfdbacked No23c1,100$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x779d…4df9backed No24c1,075$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes68c1,074$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.155633.9%19 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65c3…ebf6backed Yes74c1,050$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ab6…4cc0backed Yes65c1,009$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d7…67c2backed Yes67c1,001$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28cb…1d6ebacked No24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x214d…facfbacked Yes73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2701100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51df…9ea3backed Yes73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2701100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc64d…40debacked Yes66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3401100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe464…d184backed Yes62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3801100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe257…8261backed No33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2201952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+38.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed Yes71c999.97$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.99650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb702…e291backed Yes69c993.43$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.361926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-50.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x470e…d51dbacked Yes74c950$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb4…75fcbacked No24c900$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b9b…ef70backed No20c896.23$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.15450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fac…574ebacked No23c872.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd34…1b66backed No13c862.69$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.61216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-70.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No27c857.33$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.111,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes75c838$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.922733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No8c820.25$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3117227.9%48 W · 124 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No21c766.81$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.48238.7%2 W · 21 L-5.1wins-0.22per pick31cpaid-79%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked No29c750.48$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2191145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+72.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a41…e957backed No29c750$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes63c749.93$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.47771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5401…aeaabacked Yes70c744.46$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.34475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+50%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No2c743.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.643537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27e…827dbacked Yes76c713.56$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.45366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71ed…d9ebbacked No2c705.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.991421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No2c700$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.425538.2%21 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66fa…89b2backed No29c700$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b21…7895backed No34c699.93$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5838…3636backed No26c655.11$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.244753.2%25 W · 22 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+77.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9fb3…4393backed No31c638.59$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c7f…a52cbacked No17c628.89$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes72c616$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.7810131.7%32 W · 69 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-36.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked No28c615.9$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.025135.3%18 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x451c…2856backed Yes74c614.76$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd294…c16cbacked No16c610.55$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd26d…1834backed Yes73c537.88$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No15c520.59$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3315237.5%57 W · 95 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.