Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27619d612e16ba61fd0c60000d6e1e17947f539bbd5fff7d08a1e0ecb3776462
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,443,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,416,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,443,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 951 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaae6…2b88backed No | 60c | 112,653$67,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67,591.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x737a…1699backed Yes | 40c | 112,653$45,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,591.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b59…5f20backed Yes | 42c | 76,657$32,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,461.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8805…90eabacked No | 58c | 76,657$44,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,461.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 59c | 55,533$32,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,888.24 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…7229backed Yes | 37c | 45,988$16,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,168.33 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf501…8852backed Yes | 76c | 36,023$27,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,771 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…c753backed No | 16c | 32,192$5,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,110.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed No | 75c | 30,666$22,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,896.59 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 72c | 24,662$17,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,839.83 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c58…01aebacked Yes | 30c | 21,865$6,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,405.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b3…209ebacked No | 14c | 20,970$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…842bbacked No | 17c | 19,757$3,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,358.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 56cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked No | 17c | 17,755$2,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,962.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 78c | 17,323$13,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,780.37 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 16,042$11,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,712.55 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 66c | 13,965$9,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,252.43 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked No | 35c | 13,649$4,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,746.31 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 20c | 13,556$2,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,692.54 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…7feabacked No | 51c | 12,612$6,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,470.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3e…3d75backed No | 23c | 11,051$2,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,541.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…cf04backed Yes | 79c | 10,760$8,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,309.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 24c | 10,657$2,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,575.19 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 18c | 10,500$1,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,897 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 18c | 10,445$1,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,867.75 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…56c6backed No | 5c | 10,397$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…77e1backed Yes | 57c | 10,182$5,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,362.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 51c | 8,264$4,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,197.64 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 3c | 8,133$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.47 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 45c | 7,716$3,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,437.24 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 79c | 7,652$6,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.12 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 56c | 7,442$4,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,285.35 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…974ebacked No | 18c | 7,431$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12b…610cbacked No | 8c | 7,097$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 58c | 6,957$4,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,011.97 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 41c | 6,001$2,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,549.25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 35c | 6,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,900 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 40c | 5,800$2,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,455.15 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 68c | 5,797$3,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.29 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5983…64a8backed Yes | 35c | 5,742$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,751.51 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…353bbacked Yes | 34c | 5,632$1,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,692.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 64c | 5,393$3,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,476.88 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6816…b693backed No | 62c | 5,168$3,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,204.58 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…b067backed No | 63c | 5,040$3,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,175.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ea…f79dbacked Yes | 37c | 5,040$1,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,175.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…42debacked Yes | 37c | 5,017$1,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,170.53 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…dd8ebacked Yes | 36c | 4,980$1,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,187.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…ab85backed No | 64c | 4,980$3,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,187.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f51ebacked No | 17c | 4,927$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.47 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…eb50backed Yes | 53c | 4,750$2,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,238.66 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 46c | 4,702$2,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,516.11 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 65c | 4,555$2,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,952.95 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 60c | 3,961$2,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,382.99 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes | 38c | 3,935$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,435.4 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 78c | 3,850$3,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.21 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…132ebacked No | 23c | 3,528$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 3,188$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 64c | 3,113$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.03 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 20c | 3,087$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3119…c8f8backed No | 65c | 3,079$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 39c | 3,063$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,868.69 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 35c | 3,000$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 3,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 76c | 2,723$2,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.69 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 79c | 2,664$2,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.18 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x653d…7805backed Yes | 40c | 2,477$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked No | 18c | 2,388$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.77 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 64c | 2,291$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.97 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed No | 19c | 2,170$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.96 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 75c | 2,141$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.74 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 2,120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab4…13b2backed No | 53c | 2,101$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked No | 11c | 2,036$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.45 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,010$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 39c | 2,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 58c | 1,749$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.35 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8352…d51abacked Yes | 66c | 1,739$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 54c | 1,698$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.58 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed No | 6c | 1,688$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 18c | 1,674$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.27 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…f74dbacked Yes | 50c | 1,646$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…9fc2backed Yes | 58c | 1,642$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 32c | 1,641$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.82 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ac…a261backed Yes | 49c | 1,632$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 23c | 1,617$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.24 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 65c | 1,589$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.42 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 59c | 1,509$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.34 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffa…8ee0backed No | 14c | 1,505$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338e…3267backed No | 4c | 1,503$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…ad77backed Yes | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed No | 64c | 1,500$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.99 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 20c | 1,469$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.13 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked No | 28c | 1,451$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.4 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked No | 40c | 1,446$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.78 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2a…042bbacked No | 60c | 1,443$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Yes | 37c | 1,426$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.91 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed No | 21c | 1,400$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.