TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,443,302
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,416,768

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,443,302 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 951 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaae6…2b88backed No60c112,653$67,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,591.820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x737a…1699backed Yes40c112,653$45,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,591.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b59…5f20backed Yes42c76,657$32,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,461.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8805…90eabacked No58c76,657$44,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,461.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No59c55,533$32,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,888.247740.3%31 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8ca…7229backed Yes37c45,988$16,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,168.331560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf501…8852backed Yes76c36,023$27,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,7711323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-68.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x09b4…c753backed No16c32,192$5,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,110.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed No75c30,666$22,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,896.591464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-12.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes72c24,662$17,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,839.838058.8%47 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c58…01aebacked Yes30c21,865$6,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,405.051020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62b3…209ebacked No14c20,970$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+150.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab57…842bbacked No17c19,757$3,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,358.73616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick56cpaid-78.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked No17c17,755$2,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,962.81050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes78c17,323$13,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,780.3711031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes71c16,042$11,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,712.5569634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No66c13,965$9,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,252.4316943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked No35c13,649$4,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,746.316526.2%17 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No20c13,556$2,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,692.5437533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7462…7feabacked No51c12,612$6,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,470.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c3e…3d75backed No23c11,051$2,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,541.621250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1fd5…cf04backed Yes79c10,760$8,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,309.56450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No24c10,657$2,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,575.194542.2%19 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked No18c10,500$1,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8973727%10 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No18c10,445$1,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,867.7515646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dba…56c6backed No5c10,397$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae06…77e1backed Yes57c10,182$5,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,362.51633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No51c8,264$4,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,197.648450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed No3c8,133$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.4711428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No45c7,716$3,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,437.244346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x066a…550dbacked Yes79c7,652$6,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,578.124339.5%17 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes56c7,442$4,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,285.3599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1769…974ebacked No18c7,431$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa12b…610cbacked No8c7,097$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No58c6,957$4,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,011.976145.9%28 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a4…0064backed Yes41c6,001$2,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,549.252437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes35c6,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9007728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes40c5,800$2,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,455.155433.3%18 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes68c5,797$3,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,853.297051.4%36 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5983…64a8backed Yes35c5,742$1,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,751.511560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+53.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc30a…353bbacked Yes34c5,632$1,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,692.241040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No64c5,393$3,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,476.8810055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6816…b693backed No62c5,168$3,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,204.581838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.21per pick60cpaid-43.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc96e…b067backed No63c5,040$3,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,175.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ea…f79dbacked Yes37c5,040$1,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,175.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab0…42debacked Yes37c5,017$1,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,170.531752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+51.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac8f…dd8ebacked Yes36c4,980$1,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,187.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad1…ab85backed No64c4,980$3,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,187.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8258…f51ebacked No17c4,927$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.471747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fd7…eb50backed Yes53c4,750$2,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,238.662347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Yes46c4,702$2,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,516.116251.6%32 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No65c4,555$2,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,952.9517225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No60c3,961$2,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,382.9911848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes38c3,935$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,435.42445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes78c3,850$3,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.2116643.4%72 W · 94 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc7c…132ebacked No23c3,528$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.86450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c3,188$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.553989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes64c3,113$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.032751.9%14 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.18per pick34cpaid+43.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No20c3,087$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6101612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3119…c8f8backed No65c3,079$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes39c3,063$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,868.699248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes35c3,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9505928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes40c3,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8005437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No1c3,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes76c2,723$2,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.6923149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes79c2,664$2,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.1819348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x653d…7805backed Yes40c2,477$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.24728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked No18c2,388$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.772934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No64c2,291$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.975349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed No19c2,170$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.965135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes75c2,141$1,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.743228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c2,120$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4713714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ab4…13b2backed No53c2,101$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.21911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-85.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked No11c2,036$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.458736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c2,010$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.181,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes39c2,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,23015238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4607931.6%25 W · 54 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9602744.4%12 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+143.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No58c1,749$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.3510749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8352…d51abacked Yes66c1,739$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes54c1,698$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.5810630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4732…2f88backed No6c1,688$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002133.3%7 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No18c1,674$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.2714125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53c0…f74dbacked Yes50c1,646$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.78650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1726…9fc2backed Yes58c1,642$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.21070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No32c1,641$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.8210834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ac…a261backed Yes49c1,632$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.65666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+82.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No23c1,617$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.2419435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked No65c1,589$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.423935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82b1…7579backed Yes59c1,509$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.341266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ffa…8ee0backed No14c1,505$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338e…3267backed No4c1,503$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+45.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ebc…ad77backed Yes37c1,500$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-61.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59db…c353backed No64c1,500$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.991752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No20c1,469$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.1339522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked No28c1,451$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.46423.4%15 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc160…ce0abacked No40c1,446$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.783026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a2a…042bbacked No60c1,443$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Yes37c1,426$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.912152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c8…6e68backed No21c1,400$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.991145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+35.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.