AI · resolved market
Will Musk say "Trump" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c7e0757b34d6d66e2e8faf5c0d34bf48f6f2a99efbc86408bddd2a4d5f4e76f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2499…c3cebacked Yes | 44c | 35,438$15,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,845.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…c055backed No | 56c | 35,438$19,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,845.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8136…ff77backed No | 58c | 27,347$15,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,861.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa745…c20fbacked Yes | 42c | 27,347$11,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,861.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 44c | 734.53$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.98 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe760…0ae4backed Yes | 44c | 510$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1021…2e13backed No | 56c | 465$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8235…c814backed No | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe357…e06dbacked Yes | 44c | 360$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 41c | 300.22$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 56c | 280$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 40c | 246.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…b725backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 40c | 199.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…ccbabacked Yes | 54c | 186.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 59c | 177.31$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +80%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 171.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.02 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…3fcfbacked Yes | 52c | 170$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 74c | 160.55$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +57%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked No | 47c | 152.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +401.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…3de0backed No | 42c | 146.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c4…834ebacked Yes | 75c | 133.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc0…b57bbacked No | 56c | 130$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 28c | 129.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked No | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…7f0abacked Yes | 57c | 88.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ad…c0dabacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed Yes | 64c | 77.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed No | 47c | 76.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4b…e8a2backed Yes | 56c | 75.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15d…be4abacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf7…0ef1backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 55c | 69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ba…818ebacked Yes | 58c | 59.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…de39backed Yes | 54c | 59.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 61c | 45.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 42c | 45.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked No | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2b…f9fcbacked No | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b21…98a1backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01b1…76b0backed Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ef…86b8backed Yes | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…4b3fbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bef…fd0abacked Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6549…5f93backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4b…f6dbbacked No | 57c | 30.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…c77bbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f68…cf96backed Yes | 67c | 29.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 50c | 28.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f0…b70ebacked Yes | 55c | 28.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +138%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 46c | 27.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7e…a160backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd35…2bb6backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb057…010abacked No | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…da90backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…8052backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c1…01f2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Musk say "Trump" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?this page
- Will Musk say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "China" 3+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "DOGE" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Inflation" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "Mars" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "Rare Earth" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Tariff" 5+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.