AI · resolved market
Will Musk say "DOGE" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06afed9c57ef74878e257f1f07d4763e9fd29fcc23861c07d56d717b5348bee9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84c2…c73cbacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffad…e552backed No | 72c | 1,388$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 28c | 1,365$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb67c…a2c3backed No | 70c | 746.92$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.47 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 67c | 632.73$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.15 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…f347backed No | 61c | 611$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 64c | 600.92$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.08 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…df8ebacked Yes | 35c | 580$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +184%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…ed45backed Yes | 38c | 461.96$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe821…248fbacked Yes | 25c | 401.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…3de0backed No | 65c | 384.76$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 28c | 383.91$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac3…3189backed Yes | 35c | 375.38$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 76c | 368.33$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.61 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…cfddbacked Yes | 28c | 360.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 33c | 333$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked No | 65c | 310$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 75c | 258$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.53 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 71c | 226.03$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.21 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked No | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 38c | 194.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 74c | 191$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.69 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…39b9backed Yes | 45c | 166.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 72c | 147.23$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 27c | 122$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…0b30backed No | 65c | 115.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2457…2c8abacked Yes | 31c | 111.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +225.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 28c | 88.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed Yes | 47c | 84.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 47c | 77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 36c | 76.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b21…98a1backed Yes | 41c | 61.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x141e…8c87backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…e5c0backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed No | 69c | 52.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f0…b70ebacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +138%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca6c…bba5backed Yes | 71c | 42.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x131b…4d0ebacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 29c | 39.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 26c | 39.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 36.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…66a6backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 71c | 30.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa16c…ca87backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed No | 68c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb495…4bbbbacked Yes | 41c | 25.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…793cbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Musk say "DOGE" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?this page
- Will Musk say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "China" 3+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "Inflation" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "Mars" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "Rare Earth" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Tariff" 5+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Trump" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.