AI · resolved market
Will Musk say "Rare Earth" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fe47432bc137be0835ff2b6202202a9eeff6677af6a92817577d5a25e42954f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78c0…5783backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 34c | 974.69$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 21c | 915.25$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc229…6e02backed Yes | 32c | 890$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…965dbacked No | 77c | 760$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1177…3fe3backed Yes | 23c | 715$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…4f30backed No | 77c | 655$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b41…3606backed No | 68c | 590$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 28c | 558.11$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.51 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +57%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5d…ccb7backed Yes | 23c | 550$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 80c | 521.31$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.25 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…ed6bbacked No | 73c | 515$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked No | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fab…9d63backed No | 73c | 480$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 72c | 450$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 30c | 400$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…9a2bbacked Yes | 23c | 370$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4225…3b42backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 36c | 286.14$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9f…ab21backed Yes | 23c | 285$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0116backed Yes | 41c | 246.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked Yes | 21c | 237.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +80%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…481ebacked No | 77c | 235$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 25c | 217.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.14 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 20c | 158.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 76c | 158$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.08 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7685…ff73backed No | 77c | 145$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 67c | 136$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 77c | 133$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…cfddbacked Yes | 24c | 118.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…0b30backed No | 78c | 96.72$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 87.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…a913backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +194.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…accfbacked No | 77c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…da90backed No | 65c | 79.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 35c | 71.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 72c | 70.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 29c | 67.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 70c | 65.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 71c | 65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 63c | 60.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…3fa6backed No | 77c | 55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 75c | 49.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…8715backed Yes | 44c | 45.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…bafcbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131b…4d0ebacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef5…d961backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 78c | 32.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 77c | 18.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf50…fa70backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fed…a68ebacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2144…bc50backed No | 77c | 13.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Musk say "Rare Earth" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?this page
- Will Musk say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "China" 3+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "DOGE" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Inflation" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "Mars" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "Tariff" 5+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Trump" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.