AI · resolved market
Will Musk say "Inflation" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7019b0b2214defc0f867b7efa2d92d86ee75ca78797b5c7004903648b68270fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb252…70a1backed Yes | 40c | 805$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 72c | 612.08$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.87 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 29c | 607.09$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…27e8backed No | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…d90ebacked No | 65c | 495$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 56c | 471.83$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f5…4495backed Yes | 35c | 445$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 36c | 375.26$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.92 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f66…db66backed No | 60c | 315$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6842…4e0abacked Yes | 35c | 315$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed No | 72c | 311.68$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +57%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…4427backed No | 65c | 285$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…cfddbacked Yes | 43c | 230.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fb…109bbacked Yes | 35c | 220$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 71c | 212.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked No | 71c | 202.04$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed No | 52c | 199.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0986…26fabacked Yes | 40c | 190$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…a913backed No | 65c | 185$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +194.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 21c | 167$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 59c | 155.32$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…b725backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…3fcfbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 65c | 145.86$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef4a…1afebacked Yes | 40c | 120.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 53c | 104$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked Yes | 56c | 89.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…58c3backed No | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 68c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 61c | 67.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…3de0backed No | 66c | 62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb67c…a2c3backed Yes | 36c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 37c | 55.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 53c | 53.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b21…98a1backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…22f8backed Yes | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…da90backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…1cbfbacked Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…4635backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 38c | 39.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…964ebacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ff…9fccbacked Yes | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6068…72a3backed Yes | 47c | 31.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 51c | 24.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x838b…a603backed Yes | 61c | 21.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb057…010abacked No | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Musk say "Inflation" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?this page
- Will Musk say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "China" 3+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "DOGE" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "Mars" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "Rare Earth" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Tariff" 5+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Trump" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.