AI · resolved market
Will Musk say "Tariff" 5+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b01aa4f4ce8d7f256a0b72ccff5b4a056d49f4ffa40665d90c3005a613a91de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 65c | 2,409$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 35c | 1,567$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 48c | 1,172$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked No | 48c | 499.98$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 44c | 446.33$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…910fbacked Yes | 52c | 433.87$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…3de0backed Yes | 41c | 302.24$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 47c | 249.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 57c | 244.49$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.57 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 51c | 240$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 65c | 217.5$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.16 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed No | 49c | 214.49$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…e5e9backed Yes | 65c | 184.51$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 24c | 179.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe698…ca1abacked Yes | 67c | 178.56$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 49c | 161.72$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 52c | 158.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 54c | 157.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb67c…a2c3backed No | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed No | 68c | 147.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked No | 32c | 132.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…b725backed Yes | 65c | 130$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…c8f4backed Yes | 68c | 116.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c4…834ebacked No | 44c | 114.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 45c | 111.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…31e3backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +80%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 42c | 97.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 54c | 95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…e5c0backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked No | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 61c | 71.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +57%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9c…1bd6backed Yes | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…4254backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed No | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…d9a3backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7e…a160backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked No | 49c | 41.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…3d13backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…f99ebacked Yes | 51c | 31.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf7…0ef1backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 51c | 24.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf3…d72cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…2e05backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…cd92backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Musk say "Tariff" 5+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?this page
- Will Musk say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "China" 3+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "DOGE" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Inflation" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "Mars" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "Rare Earth" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Trump" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.