AI · resolved market
Will Musk say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16e3eb18b6d9a5f72642e4cc14ae601d589ee999158350e3026b6e2bc764da90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 12c | 668.31$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 6c | 419.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 17c | 350$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 5c | 308.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 25c | 275.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…5f6abacked Yes | 8c | 224.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +80%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 9c | 191.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b21…98a1backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafed…4efdbacked Yes | 14c | 103.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 15c | 96.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f694backed Yes | 19c | 82.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 71c | 77.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed No | 70c | 54.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +57%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…b725backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…2747backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…3797backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Musk say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?this page
- Will Musk say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "China" 3+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "DOGE" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Inflation" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "Mars" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "Rare Earth" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Tariff" 5+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Trump" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.