AI · resolved market
Will Musk say "Mars" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ba44712600ccd2754abc59b434348db6fee9095ac5f4d091419e5de42e6cf39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 12c | 1,392$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 80c | 929.79$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.9 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42f0…c09cbacked Yes | 13c | 920$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…39b9backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 36c | 269.79$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 29c | 254.49$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 16c | 249.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +757.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 77c | 183.67$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…4725backed Yes | 29c | 174.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 70c | 139.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x876d…c2fbbacked Yes | 29c | 136.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b21…98a1backed Yes | 19c | 130.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…4254backed Yes | 17c | 119.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…edb0backed Yes | 12c | 100.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7743…f0dbbacked Yes | 27c | 93.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…da90backed No | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac3…a4fcbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…b693backed No | 79c | 59.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…ee9cbacked Yes | 26c | 57.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…37a7backed Yes | 29c | 44.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Musk say "Mars" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?this page
- Will Musk say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "China" 3+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "DOGE" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Inflation" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "Rare Earth" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Tariff" 5+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Trump" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.