TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x01b1…76b0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
72
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 55 out of 100; worst Movies at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+69.5%+$10.42
Will Trump’s approval rating be 40.0–41.9% on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.25
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$5.8
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+112.7%+$28.18
Will Trump be impeached in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$14.89
Will a handshake between Trump and Mamdani only be photographed on November 21 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+30.7%+$4.7
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+204.3%+$171.39
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$108.24
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.77
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+272.8%+$40.93
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+166.5%+$69.94
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$13.48
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$15.99
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+131.6%+$54.13
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.3
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$14.02
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 1%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+158.6%+$18.4
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+48.6%+$6.54
Nicolas Sarkozy released from custody by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$34.28
Nicolas Sarkozy released from custody by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+263.6%+$29
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.98
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+90.1%+$18.92
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+76.3%+$12.66
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$12.19
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+32.5%+$4.9
Will d4vd rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$42.9
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$35.52
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+37%+$8.1
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$57.22
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.3
Will Apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.2
Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+61.4%+$33.15
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$6
Will Musk say "Trump" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$13.46
All 11 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+39.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+70.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$22.06
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+80.7%+$13.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milanbacked PSG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$10.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Syria by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$16.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+46.8%+$4.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.81
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.