TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Nicolas Sarkozy released from custody by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,815
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$92,651

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,815 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c9,744$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.751,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes58c5,265$3,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,229.44450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5e6…7399backed No43c4,462$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked Yes61c4,384$2,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,711.17771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick38cpaid+75.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8eac…bca8backed Yes77c3,854$2,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.11250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No14c3,649$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.9818216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48ba…6515backed No2c3,098$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa05c…7242backed No32c2,833$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7059…9549backed Yes72c2,274$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.531060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid+4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35cc…88c1backed Yes63c1,860$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.38450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58d9…0fbdbacked No4c1,556$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f79…6552backed Yes64c1,457$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No3c1,284$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7117921.2%38 W · 141 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4557…4212backed No43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8798…e58cbacked Yes65c1,137$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.291540%6 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942f…b1e7backed No37c1,130$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed No39c1,128$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.262326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34fb…71b7backed No45c1,112$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes64c1,009$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.983740.5%15 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+67.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed No46c958.98$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.943435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No8c925.89$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4517227.9%48 W · 124 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes55c921.54$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.959631.3%30 W · 66 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3612…0ebfbacked Yes67c898.39$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9db…a30ebacked No37c860.14$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x317d…8af2backed No31c800.9$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x668d…08b5backed No31c754.62$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac49…67c4backed Yes75c668.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.391127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-55.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked Yes65c611.13$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.094168.3%28 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+8.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8ea3…9642backed Yes56c599.97$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.99560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eaf…aeabbacked No29c543.87$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c538.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7716616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf645…5e86backed Yes66c528.49$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes68c516.64$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.421546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x529d…6381backed Yes78c515.53$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.813046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d07…c976backed No36c506.6$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0774…da5dbacked No34c500$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed No45c499.95$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.98955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ff…fa1bbacked No31c497.23$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed Yes65c485.55$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.124161%25 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+30.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c5b…cc00backed No41c482.81$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe697…f683backed Yes74c470.5$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80af…e100backed Yes72c466.24$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8267…8690backed Yes68c452.62$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.622100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd8…6cefbacked Yes67c449.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+117.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ca1…f2ebbacked No23c440$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x083f…a55fbacked No29c428.46$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.131428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f07…fbdebacked Yes70c410.22$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-52.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked No25c402.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005117.6%9 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec5…cfd7backed No38c400.1$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ef…a37abacked No45c390.75$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.05425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked No36c389.99$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.22748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7628…e51bbacked No34c353.56$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc450…f2f7backed Yes66c326.77$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.773100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes71c326.01$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.243357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+58.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes52c313$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.781747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes50c299.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1503727%10 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed Yes71c298.88$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.024959.2%29 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfff0…54e7backed No30c295.65$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb6…bc1abacked Yes70c294.37$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.853100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1db5…79f4backed No34c294.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes57c290.41$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.168630.2%26 W · 60 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0192…1fe3backed No35c289.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2a…59a2backed No38c285.63$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes69c280.76$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.196737.3%25 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No28c262.48$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9844921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd323…0f67backed No36c257$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52e4…38cabacked No38c255.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x982a…9f9fbacked No20c234.7$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8d…6d9cbacked Yes72c229.92$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2341…0e3abacked Yes77c227.34$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.26977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick51cpaid+106.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes70c215.89$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.984850%24 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes58c210.41$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5211435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42fa…1fc7backed Yes67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa225…b903backed No38c196.91$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3efb…1f38backed No34c195.24$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5625…bd6fbacked Yes55c194.09$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No35c182.67$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.83862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b90…1d17backed Yes69c180.69$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.493161.3%19 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes78c179.78$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.171163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+24.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeec5…0e74backed Yes76c176.03$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.941421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-65.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07db…edd4backed Yes69c175.14$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed Yes77c175$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.61861.1%11 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked No30c170$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-55.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b3…f830backed Yes50c163.76$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.884100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd22f…c3aabacked Yes65c161.98$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.983100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ffc…5d01backed Yes63c160$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No49c159.28$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9613343.6%58 W · 75 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c06…38dfbacked No40c158.36$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df9…f9c0backed Yes63c158.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2531635.1%111 W · 205 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7130…773dbacked No22c153.62$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9174…9d27backed Yes65c153.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25c5…cdc6backed Yes69c150.45$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0007…23b5backed Yes69c144.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9612…3cadbacked Yes70c143.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.44450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a7…2676backed Yes70c142.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ef…996ebacked Yes70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ade…1c09backed Yes70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.86560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+62.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0715…68a9backed Yes71c141.76$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.