World Politics · resolved market
Nicolas Sarkozy released from custody by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe58adf8921230bbb1daed7272bef2e5ce1a8eaa4b14899d3266a40d4614f4d25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 9,744$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.75 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes | 58c | 5,265$3,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,229.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e6…7399backed No | 43c | 4,462$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 61c | 4,384$2,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,711.17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 38cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…bca8backed Yes | 77c | 3,854$2,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 14c | 3,649$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.98 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…6515backed No | 2c | 3,098$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05c…7242backed No | 32c | 2,833$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…9549backed Yes | 72c | 2,274$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35cc…88c1backed Yes | 63c | 1,860$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d9…0fbdbacked No | 4c | 1,556$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f79…6552backed Yes | 64c | 1,457$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 3c | 1,284$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4557…4212backed No | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…e58cbacked Yes | 65c | 1,137$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942f…b1e7backed No | 37c | 1,130$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed No | 39c | 1,128$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.26 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fb…71b7backed No | 45c | 1,112$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 64c | 1,009$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.98 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 46c | 958.98$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.94 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 8c | 925.89$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 55c | 921.54$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.95 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3612…0ebfbacked Yes | 67c | 898.39$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9db…a30ebacked No | 37c | 860.14$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x317d…8af2backed No | 31c | 800.9$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…08b5backed No | 31c | 754.62$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac49…67c4backed Yes | 75c | 668.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 65c | 611.13$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.09 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea3…9642backed Yes | 56c | 599.97$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…aeabbacked No | 29c | 543.87$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 538.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf645…5e86backed Yes | 66c | 528.49$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 68c | 516.64$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 78c | 515.53$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.81 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d07…c976backed No | 36c | 506.6$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked No | 34c | 500$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 45c | 499.95$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked No | 31c | 497.23$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 65c | 485.55$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.12 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5b…cc00backed No | 41c | 482.81$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…f683backed Yes | 74c | 470.5$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80af…e100backed Yes | 72c | 466.24$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…8690backed Yes | 68c | 452.62$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…6cefbacked Yes | 67c | 449.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca1…f2ebbacked No | 23c | 440$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 29c | 428.46$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.13 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f07…fbdebacked Yes | 70c | 410.22$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 25c | 402.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec5…cfd7backed No | 38c | 400.1$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 45c | 390.75$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 36c | 389.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.2 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7628…e51bbacked No | 34c | 353.56$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Yes | 66c | 326.77$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 71c | 326.01$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 52c | 313$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.78 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 50c | 299.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 71c | 298.88$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.02 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…54e7backed No | 30c | 295.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…bc1abacked Yes | 70c | 294.37$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…79f4backed No | 34c | 294.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 57c | 290.41$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.16 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0192…1fe3backed No | 35c | 289.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…59a2backed No | 38c | 285.63$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 69c | 280.76$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.19 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 28c | 262.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…0f67backed No | 36c | 257$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…38cabacked No | 38c | 255.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…9f9fbacked No | 20c | 234.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…6d9cbacked Yes | 72c | 229.92$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2341…0e3abacked Yes | 77c | 227.34$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 70c | 215.89$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 58c | 210.41$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.52 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42fa…1fc7backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…b903backed No | 38c | 196.91$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3efb…1f38backed No | 34c | 195.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…bd6fbacked Yes | 55c | 194.09$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 35c | 182.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…1d17backed Yes | 69c | 180.69$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 78c | 179.78$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…0e74backed Yes | 76c | 176.03$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07db…edd4backed Yes | 69c | 175.14$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 77c | 175$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked No | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…f830backed Yes | 50c | 163.76$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…c3aabacked Yes | 65c | 161.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…5d01backed Yes | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 49c | 159.28$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c06…38dfbacked No | 40c | 158.36$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df9…f9c0backed Yes | 63c | 158.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…773dbacked No | 22c | 153.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9174…9d27backed Yes | 65c | 153.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…cdc6backed Yes | 69c | 150.45$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0007…23b5backed Yes | 69c | 144.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…3cadbacked Yes | 70c | 143.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…2676backed Yes | 70c | 142.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ef…996ebacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ade…1c09backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0715…68a9backed Yes | 71c | 141.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nicolas Sarkozy released from custody by December 31?this page
- Nicolas Sarkozy released from custody by November 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.