China Taiwan · resolved market
DeepSeek V4 released before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x992a94200feb479df4a4c6ec9cfabd37b2395d8ebc86d3bac15425c5aeb92f99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $184,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd180…0c89backed No | 40c | 40,267$16,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,160.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf5…ab60backed Yes | 60c | 40,267$24,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,160.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2499…c3cebacked No | 49c | 31,627$15,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,129.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a5…192ebacked Yes | 51c | 31,627$16,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,129.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x690a…0813backed No | 51c | 3,514$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,734.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 43c | 3,297$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 7c | 2,800$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.98 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 4c | 1,981$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 41c | 1,976$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.79 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked No | 43c | 997.31$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 68c | 992.64$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…d7a5backed No | 66c | 983.09$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…4e67backed No | 77c | 809.84$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…9dcdbacked No | 62c | 751.85$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 23c | 729.22$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 3c | 700$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…2995backed Yes | 43c | 550$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 520.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…7930backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 53c | 429.95$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x960c…e052backed No | 75c | 400.44$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 9c | 331.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 329.9$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.33 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed No | 75c | 328.8$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 39c | 323.37$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.16 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 79c | 250$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 43c | 234.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked Yes | 6c | 215.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf07…5129backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 49c | 203.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 55c | 200$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb0…8fc5backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8990…bc80backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +229.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Yes | 59c | 170.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…6a18backed No | 60c | 165.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee97…ee69backed Yes | 26c | 158.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 40c | 151.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3115…5df4backed No | 70c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 25c | 149.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 29c | 146.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed No | 73c | 139.2$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…231bbacked No | 78c | 114.1$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 77c | 111$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 68c | 105.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 48c | 101.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…4cd6backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 97.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c70…6504backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 40c | 94.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…0e43backed No | 41c | 91.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 34c | 90.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 34c | 87.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 46c | 84.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 34c | 79.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 53c | 75.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 53c | 74.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf5…b2d1backed No | 72c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 73c | 68.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb41…a826backed Yes | 21c | 61.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b5…5754backed No | 65c | 61.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…ba6abacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…c807backed Yes | 52c | 59.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 40c | 59.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ece6backed Yes | 36c | 55.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…dcf4backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…621ebacked Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 39c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 67c | 40.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fa…8a55backed No | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad7…677cbacked Yes | 34c | 38.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…27debacked No | 78c | 37.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…cdf1backed No | 38c | 34.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +177.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc8…a39cbacked Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b1…76b0backed Yes | 44c | 28.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…7c46backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4e…460ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.