TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$416,021
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$459,464

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $416,021 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 401 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes75c37,778$28,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,257.465554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b46…78bdbacked No26c17,389$4,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,552.152821.4%6 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-53%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x593e…b5ebbacked No36c15,646$5,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,600.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes75c11,288$8,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,769.518150.6%41 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4108…a80dbacked No1c10,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4aa7…5458backed No48c9,285$4,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,433.58540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+170.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No3c8,816$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.556291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00e1…b679backed Yes80c8,247$6,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,687.392725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed Yes76c6,500$4,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,531.877948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aad…ac60backed No48c6,002$2,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,864.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes63c5,608$3,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,102.2710426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf258…e4b0backed No30c5,534$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.092356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a85…08ddbacked No1c5,356$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5895…7406backed No2c5,026$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No7c4,670$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.51,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98e8…ab20backed No34c4,474$1,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,501.732821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb6a…3cbebacked No7c4,327$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed No66c4,281$2,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,829.927636.8%28 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2db3…a99bbacked No2c4,184$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No42c4,089$1,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,721.9525731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe005…14fdbacked No24c3,900$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9531752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+20.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x749f…9501backed Yes46c3,793$1,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,058.946232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x00fb…b8debacked Yes77c3,788$2,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes79c3,246$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.4211346%52 W · 61 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-1.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes48c3,128$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,637.818754%47 W · 40 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No19c3,063$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.954012.5%5 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-52.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87c9…22d8backed No17c2,873$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.47837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d95…158cbacked No29c2,583$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3790…5e8bbacked No32c2,435$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No24c2,434$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.768041.3%33 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x763d…d0f2backed No5c2,340$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-73%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4217…8bf7backed No1c1,979$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No29c1,978$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.1647938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5170…9158backed Yes24c1,858$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.741656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+29.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d83…0bb9backed No46c1,733$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.628644.2%38 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes67c1,679$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.332638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes64c1,638$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.9927536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes53c1,571$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.7124315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed No39c1,552$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60011836.4%43 W · 75 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed No1c1,259$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6856…b578backed No8c1,253$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7749…5c5bbacked No10c1,139$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e8…5b74backed No35c1,118$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.252236.4%8 W · 14 L-5.3wins-0.24per pick60cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes76c1,100$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.997330.1%22 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5e9…f75ebacked No19c1,064$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x866d…bf31backed Yes79c1,021$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d43…bec0backed Yes78c1,000$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.71450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Yes66c1,000$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3454540%18 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+55.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e3…f4a0backed Yes76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes22c983.4$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.059435.1%33 W · 61 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+167%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbb0f…559abacked Yes71c897.12$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb83b…dfbebacked No27c891.04$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.543040%12 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+44.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf626…8a12backed Yes72c888.89$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.897100%7 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d71…87d5backed Yes76c847.41$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.181741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2baf…1ed4backed No7c828.81$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked No31c827.86$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.11323.1%1 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick15cpaid-88.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe5a…5941backed No4c823.48$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No33c807.83$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.19128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-84.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8acb…63b2backed No9c752.7$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6950%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked Yes73c734.9$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+72.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d9a…7991backed Yes71c701.85$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.85944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes68c698.26$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.482835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes62c678.66$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.72832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed Yes76c661.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.912454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes66c659.99$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.093966.7%26 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+44.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x81be…2d58backed No15c655.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-80.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No26c635.99$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.83240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes71c602.27$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.357426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes72c600$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1684729.8%14 W · 33 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No25c599$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.7526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes76c586.43$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.431643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No12c577.54$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.545950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x69d9…7c64backed No36c553.05$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-79.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4baf…5fdfbacked Yes74c553$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.781533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked No21c552.87$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.682814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ace…611dbacked No17c546.64$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No13c524.15$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3328828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…8d1cbacked Yes77c522.34$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.34475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf85c…3f74backed Yes73c514.17$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ca…3b87backed Yes75c505.86$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.473943.6%17 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+65.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1b54…bac5backed Yes69c500$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5818…58f5backed Yes75c500$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.331040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081c…c4e4backed No31c500$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4fa…23a9backed Yes74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick69cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88cb…e808backed No3c499.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No8c482.34$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.275225%13 W · 39 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-33.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7717…fa4dbacked No28c467.98$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2490%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes72c462.21$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.21450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Yes68c455.06$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.711241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x173a…eb85backed No13c445.63$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a69…30bfbacked Yes70c428.57$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1210…cf24backed No41c415.42$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.131233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb949…d8e0backed No27c407.25$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5518…46c8backed No29c405$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-84.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No17c401$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.340712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9a2c…32a2backed No23c400$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0060…4cc4backed Yes70c383.86$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.291315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-76.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8f9…f017backed No4c373.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked No41c373.19$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.844463.6%28 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a17…4664backed Yes80c345.59$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.