AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb680040a3caca80196527c0b0e68498ba782609ebec2ea175c37f4d1b105a626
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $194,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 26,467$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.36 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 11,746$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.95 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…fad0backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,790$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.45 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…3047backed Yes | 1c | 6,288$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…471abacked Yes | 2c | 5,649$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 5,429$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…e2c5backed Yes | 8c | 5,215$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.7 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 4,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 4c | 4,335$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.61 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4d…2dccbacked Yes | 2c | 4,315$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…6525backed Yes | 3c | 3,464$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 3c | 3,340$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.53 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…3ad7backed Yes | 1c | 2,995$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,351$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5895…7406backed Yes | 1c | 2,206$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…e451backed Yes | 5c | 2,181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,158$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…6bc9backed Yes | 1c | 2,116$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…31b5backed Yes | 3c | 1,974$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1411…5afdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,740$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7d…928abacked Yes | 6c | 1,677$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…874ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,615$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 5c | 1,560$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…e68fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,354$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 2c | 1,314$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x025a…b035backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…4e3ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,241$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…46c8backed Yes | 5c | 1,174$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…d27bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,124$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ac…9751backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…3eaebacked Yes | 5c | 968.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3445…d229backed Yes | 2c | 899.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…7473backed Yes | 2c | 848$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 2c | 746$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…422dbacked Yes | 1c | 743.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…0975backed Yes | 3c | 690.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6a…3cbebacked Yes | 5c | 658.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes | 8c | 621.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 8c | 551$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58cb…aaf0backed Yes | 6c | 435.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5310…c2febacked Yes | 3c | 430.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531c…d8a7backed Yes | 5c | 419.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd09e…1bebbacked Yes | 5c | 382.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 7c | 370.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…5d85backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b7…cf78backed Yes | 7c | 296.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5260…fd71backed Yes | 7c | 275.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6544…1711backed Yes | 9c | 230.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0060…4cc4backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes won
- Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.