AI · resolved market
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f44069524809c9896575589dd61cb218073f9a0426793a1133f2869cb5bfb62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $401,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $401,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 19,447$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 18,884$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.58 | 631 | 1.3%8 W · 623 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5895…7406backed Yes | 0c | 7,034$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 17c | 3,243$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.58 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,911$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 1,368 | 6.8%93 W · 1,275 L | -20.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ab…6473backed Yes | 22c | 2,605$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 1,780$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.4 | 259 | 31.7%82 W · 177 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x025a…b035backed Yes | 1c | 1,044$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,017$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.14 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 944.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 481 | 38%183 W · 298 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 10c | 887.75$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.86 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 9c | 776.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1210…cf24backed Yes | 25c | 610.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 18c | 601.55$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.29 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 23c | 368.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…fecabacked Yes | 23c | 319.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81ca…3b87backed Yes | 18c | 276.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6c…5ab5backed No | 75c | 237.16$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x753e…1f2dbacked Yes | 7c | 215.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017f…7f98backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…b95dbacked Yes | 20c | 205$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…2bc2backed Yes | 16c | 162.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 24c | 123.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…1be9backed Yes | 21c | 120.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5310…c2febacked Yes | 15c | 117.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…d398backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.30per pick | 28cpaid | +122%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb0…b5c6backed Yes | 20c | 100.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…6ab9backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…bde6backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d4…08fcbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1e…6067backed Yes | 24c | 85.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0c…3c91backed No | 74c | 77.52$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa35…7054backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 61.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22df…ed56backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb098…1038backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +249.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…1be6backed No | 78c | 28.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 70c | 27.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb44…4fb2backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…5f04backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 303 | 27.4%83 W · 220 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 17.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 734 | 35.6%261 W · 473 L | -58.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?this page
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes won
- Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.