AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa097d804fd54ef2fc44ac5f8d8c84ec90081bdf101c8765507f390b9f03eb786
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $177,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 19,295$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.19 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…78bdbacked Yes | 19c | 18,000$3,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,464.39 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 6,539$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.14 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cc…26dcbacked Yes | 1c | 6,176$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 5c | 5,552$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.53 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +478.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124f…6733backed Yes | 6c | 4,200$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 4,131$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x763d…d0f2backed Yes | 4c | 4,096$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -73%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dc…d9e0backed Yes | 7c | 3,646$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.52 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 2,820$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e3…aefabacked Yes | 18c | 2,545$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,462$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…6bc9backed Yes | 1c | 2,439$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…31b5backed Yes | 3c | 2,130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x283e…9316backed Yes | 6c | 2,116$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 37c | 2,049$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.16 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5895…7406backed Yes | 1c | 2,040$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 19c | 1,941$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.88 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…6525backed Yes | 1c | 1,550$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…471abacked No | 80c | 1,537$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.37 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1619…4b1ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,419$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a85…08ddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,407$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,407$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.81 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…d549backed Yes | 1c | 1,386$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 17c | 1,259$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…ee2dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,221$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed Yes | 19c | 1,150$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…5f53backed Yes | 4c | 1,094$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 7c | 1,039$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…dbbcbacked Yes | 4c | 938.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…8ef4backed Yes | 3c | 922.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 18c | 900$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.69 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…0fd1backed Yes | 24c | 896.48$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.86 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed Yes | 23c | 846.98$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.34 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…46c8backed Yes | 7c | 817.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…bec0backed Yes | 22c | 759.84$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 29c | 708.25$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.59 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…c71cbacked Yes | 8c | 700$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6a…3cbebacked Yes | 6c | 654.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0976…704cbacked Yes | 16c | 619.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531c…d8a7backed Yes | 3c | 615.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 18c | 561.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c9…22d8backed Yes | 18c | 555.3$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…2312backed Yes | 30c | 500$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…fba3backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…fdb3backed Yes | 10c | 488.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked Yes | 30c | 481.59$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.31 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58cb…aaf0backed Yes | 5c | 462.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…60b4backed Yes | 8c | 450.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…894bbacked Yes | 5c | 436.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7352…e156backed Yes | 24c | 411.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.06 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Yes | 24c | 410.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 66c | 394.8$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.89 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c9…d2a2backed Yes | 13c | 378.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes | 26c | 378.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5810…94e5backed Yes | 27c | 370.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c86…923fbacked Yes | 18c | 363.17$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bd…aee8backed Yes | 14c | 362.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…b95dbacked Yes | 6c | 350.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b7…cf78backed Yes | 6c | 338.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8316…457bbacked Yes | 6c | 328.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…3aa6backed Yes | 7c | 302.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd63…64d9backed Yes | 31c | 301.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef1…573dbacked Yes | 27c | 300$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…1ff9backed Yes | 33c | 299.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x856c…7e2ebacked Yes | 7c | 299.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 12c | 281.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf14d…3577backed Yes | 22c | 275.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1470…f625backed Yes | 6c | 270.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9449…d8e1backed Yes | 35c | 240.16$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf258…e4b0backed No | 79c | 239.88$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…e68fbacked Yes | 10c | 232.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad8…69c9backed Yes | 26c | 232.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…5776backed Yes | 24c | 229.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7749…5c5bbacked Yes | 6c | 210$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…d398backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.30per pick | 28cpaid | +122%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 7c | 198.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…f75ebacked Yes | 26c | 190$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…1283backed Yes | 9c | 184.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…e569backed Yes | 7c | 163.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…d990backed Yes | 13c | 147.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7054…404abacked Yes | 11c | 145$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4e…0782backed Yes | 15c | 134.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…50e2backed Yes | 15c | 134.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…791fbacked No | 78c | 128.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…9e38backed Yes | 36c | 117.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ca…3b87backed Yes | 14c | 112.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5260…fd71backed No | 76c | 111.15$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03f…acb8backed Yes | 19c | 105.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf6…9767backed Yes | 10c | 100.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19fa…de0fbacked No | 75c | 94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6302…ed9cbacked Yes | 12c | 92.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 64c | 92.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…4826backed Yes | 18c | 85.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a3…0740backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb7…47adbacked Yes | 18c | 65.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 22c | 58.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 30c | 50.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa741…8d0ebacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes won
- Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.