AI · resolved market
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe293dc156641e06471ed9a0f522efca01d13132cd29f13a99879da23ad5b2745
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $874,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $874,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 20,780$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.02 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 17,971$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 14c | 4,743$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ca…3b87backed Yes | 9c | 3,332$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.78 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 3,172$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.95 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 2,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…31aabacked Yes | 16c | 2,185$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,616$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,001$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.85 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 15c | 799.76$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.93 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dfbebacked Yes | 13c | 753.69$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 682.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 577.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 16c | 459.18$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…d398backed Yes | 6c | 406.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.30per pick | 28cpaid | +122%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 6c | 353.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…b95dbacked Yes | 6c | 313.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 250.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf258…e4b0backed Yes | 11c | 241.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1e…6067backed Yes | 21c | 234.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…d1bdbacked Yes | 11c | 227.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08f8…0e43backed Yes | 10c | 194.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 15c | 163.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…2bc2backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…1be9backed Yes | 19c | 110.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…fe1cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…fecabacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…46c8backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3316…1bc4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb9…1f8fbacked Yes | 21c | 95.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcb…4f9dbacked Yes | 24c | 50.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes won
- Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.