Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f1e7edc43f4cd810ab4222d96301a204c9787ba910f5aef96633c4c3eda242d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 349 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked No | 33c | 20,158$6,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,540.92 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 41c | 17,662$7,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,436.64 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…e73bbacked Yes | 65c | 11,596$7,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,554.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 56c | 8,165$4,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,551.65 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 51c | 6,840$3,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,495.68 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 6,804$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 52c | 4,577$2,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,183.63 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 42c | 4,529$1,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,897.29 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 51c | 4,276$2,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,092.71 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…9226backed Yes | 62c | 4,068$2,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,514.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeafe…5b7fbacked Yes | 60c | 4,038$2,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,417.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed No | 42c | 3,022$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.07 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 56c | 2,846$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.87 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762f…b37cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,811$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491a…d91bbacked Yes | 66c | 2,599$1,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,724.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1de…5834backed No | 57c | 2,147$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8225…c4a8backed Yes | 41c | 2,085$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 45c | 1,897$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 36c | 1,871$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.81 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…510ebacked No | 33c | 1,827$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1204…4ba6backed Yes | 64c | 1,564$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 67c | 1,437$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.53 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…e211backed Yes | 74c | 1,358$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 40c | 1,180$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.82 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 26c | 1,161$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.01 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 49c | 1,109$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.71 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 12c | 1,099$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.82 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes | 64c | 1,091$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 74c | 1,029$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.07 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 46c | 969.32$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.63 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 20c | 964.16$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.75 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed Yes | 45c | 905.24$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.36 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…df72backed No | 64c | 852.99$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 55c | 809.04$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.91 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd124…b1c6backed No | 71c | 800.07$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb4…e31fbacked Yes | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked No | 69c | 761.54$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f0…9b5cbacked No | 19c | 760$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe79…9d68backed Yes | 30c | 732.53$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ee…8836backed Yes | 75c | 699.99$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 58c | 699.62$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.75 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 53c | 692.37$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.92 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 32c | 667.76$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.25 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…bdbdbacked Yes | 66c | 654.28$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 36c | 654.02$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.11 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…087dbacked Yes | 76c | 644.06$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed No | 25c | 644$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.67 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 32c | 618.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 44c | 593.1$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.28 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 17c | 587.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.03 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x76be…6718backed Yes | 63c | 563.98$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 58cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…8d1cbacked No | 51c | 553.54$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…6425backed Yes | 62c | 514$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 40c | 505.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…f361backed Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 32c | 499.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.99 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed No | 43c | 498.5$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.8 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…433bbacked Yes | 69c | 490.07$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked No | 67c | 485.87$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 49c | 484.13$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.63 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 40c | 481.18$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.8 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceb5…7c14backed Yes | 64c | 471.47$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2956…85debacked Yes | 65c | 451.35$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 39c | 449.95$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.55 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…b277backed Yes | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 28c | 431.38$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.97 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…3b03backed Yes | 51c | 420.68$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 55c | 409.43$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.54 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 69c | 408.24$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.05 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e43…e0e4backed Yes | 60c | 403.83$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 40c | 400.42$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.3 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 78c | 400$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.63 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x617d…fd9fbacked Yes | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…0776backed No | 39c | 399.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…6d9cbacked Yes | 39c | 389.94$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…af77backed Yes | 62c | 385.78$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…074fbacked Yes | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6112…79c6backed Yes | 51c | 372$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Yes | 66c | 370$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…a18fbacked Yes | 26c | 367.87$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 28c | 342.68$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.25 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…4faebacked Yes | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85a…6230backed Yes | 12c | 336.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…c3f1backed Yes | 63c | 336.32$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.88 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76f3…ae51backed Yes | 55c | 336.16$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.04 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 30c | 333.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.07 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a26…a80fbacked No | 70c | 326.04$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a0…0da6backed Yes | 62c | 322.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81b7…f5c9backed Yes | 59c | 314.57$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked No | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9499…de32backed Yes | 64c | 299.81$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…ef05backed No | 47c | 273.21$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 56c | 270.37$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.57 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…d9a2backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x365b…4dacbacked Yes | 36c | 252.53$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 29c | 243.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.55 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Yes | 49c | 240.12$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +184.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?this page
- Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Dome" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.