Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Dome" during his 4th of July remarks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfaa7bc4cee131fb6e724b54230616a1aad023dc6044da6b84f06b35ada28586
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x428b…bda8backed No | 72c | 855$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 16c | 825.48$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.29 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 13c | 767.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…ac87backed Yes | 28c | 765$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 76c | 646.67$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.36 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617d…fd9fbacked Yes | 27c | 398$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29cb…afd5backed Yes | 20c | 316.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 55c | 262.6$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.11 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…ac22backed Yes | 28c | 230$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eec…8f96backed Yes | 28c | 211.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c3…f78cbacked Yes | 26c | 208.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 15c | 204.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 75c | 147.82$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f8…cb84backed No | 72c | 145$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 43c | 139.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 72c | 138.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…f330backed Yes | 31c | 132.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…060ebacked Yes | 36c | 131.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5525…c29cbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 57c | 123.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 34c | 109.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…24e0backed No | 68c | 107.05$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfb…80debacked Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 62c | 85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…7c30backed Yes | 34c | 83.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…5defbacked Yes | 25c | 83.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 27c | 79.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf82…c406backed No | 64c | 78.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 22c | 66.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 26c | 64.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 74c | 55.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…c5f6backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 56c | 43.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 60c | 42.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9041…71dbbacked Yes | 47c | 42.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…81fbbacked No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…4545backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7e…a160backed No | 66c | 30.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…8161backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…f7f2backed No | 73c | 22.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 71c | 20.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 69c | 18.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Dome" during his 4th of July remarks?this page
- Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.