Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13c2ee25a1ef8c216f825d7a1529c510b96c9d6f701eca617b4ac86f5a970928
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 64c | 3,067$1,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.74 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d53…c3cbbacked Yes | 32c | 2,684$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed Yes | 60c | 1,800$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 32c | 1,758$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.53 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 34c | 1,385$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.04 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 10c | 1,008$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fb…87e0backed Yes | 28c | 975$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked No | 34c | 920.5$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.78 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3166…ea6ebacked Yes | 66c | 890$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46c6…dbdebacked No | 34c | 870$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…81fbbacked No | 59c | 851.05$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.18 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 65c | 837.25$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.42 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 44c | 817.49$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.25 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 43c | 635.02$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.13 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 45c | 625.35$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.38 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 26c | 606.58$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.41 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 35c | 588$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…510ebacked No | 52c | 573.58$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 31c | 569.46$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.81 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 70c | 568.7$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.9 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 17c | 531.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 16c | 530.91$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.57 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 40c | 526.27$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.88 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2440backed No | 72c | 525$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 63c | 475.58$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.92 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 57c | 449.99$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.33 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…4b87backed No | 72c | 415$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 35c | 400$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.74 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 24c | 381$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 24c | 356.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…84a1backed Yes | 22c | 350$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 74c | 312.63$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.1 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617d…fd9fbacked Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed No | 34c | 294$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 59c | 291.06$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.51 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 58c | 249.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 26c | 249.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.98 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 15c | 246.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 61c | 240$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…2189backed No | 32c | 238.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…83c4backed Yes | 72c | 212.1$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…6a00backed Yes | 73c | 206$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 28c | 198.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.95 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…0f4abacked Yes | 72c | 197.15$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fa…10e7backed No | 31c | 192$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked No | 32c | 190.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.01 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…3843backed No | 32c | 188$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.54 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed No | 75c | 164$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…a48ebacked No | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Yes | 66c | 150.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc19a…66bbbacked Yes | 31c | 148.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf35…ccc9backed No | 34c | 130$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa701…77e8backed Yes | 44c | 129.26$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 25c | 128.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…d8cabacked Yes | 33c | 125.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…576dbacked No | 75c | 125$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 16c | 124.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1d…172bbacked Yes | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked No | 70c | 122.23$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 112.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…c9f8backed Yes | 66c | 110$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 47c | 109.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked Yes | 10c | 108.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 23c | 102.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…0a2cbacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4481…e934backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0c…d0a4backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…b1e4backed Yes | 30c | 97.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 25c | 91.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…c5babacked Yes | 28c | 89.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4332…975dbacked No | 69c | 85.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 29c | 79.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…6209backed Yes | 39c | 76.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 24c | 75.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ae…0d93backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac8…2a9dbacked No | 28c | 69.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…cad2backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…0fdbbacked Yes | 51c | 68.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…f2ffbacked No | 74c | 67.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7de5…e944backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5b…2e8bbacked Yes | 31c | 65.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 55c | 64.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7e…a160backed No | 32c | 62.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 67c | 60.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51d…3bc2backed Yes | 69c | 58.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?this page
- Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Dome" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.