Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his 4th of July remarks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1266584fb2b774e60d782187b703d9ab58a5c5f158c69efc756c3750ce6fca1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4760…0a49backed Yes | 28c | 3,340$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.67 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 24c | 1,635$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.49 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 17c | 1,524$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.29 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 65c | 1,375$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.82 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce11…0280backed Yes | 46c | 1,084$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…0659backed Yes | 32c | 1,080$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fc…1573backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bb…c1b7backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d5…990ebacked Yes | 28c | 995$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 18c | 952.86$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.92 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed No | 74c | 916.22$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 71c | 898$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.53 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…ce7fbacked No | 71c | 895$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 64c | 894.11$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.82 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…3604backed No | 77c | 800$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…3843backed No | 78c | 776.82$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.67 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked No | 51c | 758.48$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 67c | 740$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.1 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccc4…0f48backed Yes | 23c | 725$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…7254backed No | 72c | 715$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7f…4326backed Yes | 37c | 617.77$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…8b32backed Yes | 18c | 602.77$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…05cfbacked Yes | 30c | 585.03$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 70c | 469$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.59 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…a48ebacked No | 72c | 419.52$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 25c | 341.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 73c | 333.85$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…9e14backed Yes | 5c | 275$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f2…2dccbacked Yes | 23c | 270$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1837…8da6backed Yes | 18c | 266.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…3deabacked No | 61c | 262.3$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 61c | 260$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.4 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…42ebbacked No | 72c | 255$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 32c | 234.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430c…0c89backed Yes | 21c | 233.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 21c | 229.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 63c | 222.22$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 34c | 205$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b9…1cd7backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 23c | 195.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…2762backed Yes | 27c | 166.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe724…5ad6backed Yes | 41c | 145.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 72c | 138.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…b009backed Yes | 38c | 132.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 77c | 130.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked No | 66c | 127.22$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed No | 75c | 126$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…1b0bbacked Yes | 29c | 117.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 11c | 110.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 18c | 105.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ed…2ea5backed No | 71c | 105$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…1377backed No | 75c | 86.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 34c | 80.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…0fdbbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…24e0backed No | 70c | 71.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…6425backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 58c | 69.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7773…4e0dbacked No | 72c | 66.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8225…c4a8backed Yes | 26c | 66.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 40c | 64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c4…9b57backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 18c | 55.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff24…ffb1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 35c | 48.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x980e…3e1dbacked Yes | 29c | 45.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked No | 68c | 41.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 41.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b0…8512backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7e…a160backed No | 67c | 29.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…1165backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…5f96backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…27debacked No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee7f…93c1backed No | 60c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his 4th of July remarks?this page
- Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Dome" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.