Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aa6accd8d404083e42554dc9d7606ebf2d39d36eabe9dcff3fef01d506fd7b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 67c | 5,120$3,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,676.58 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked No | 34c | 4,350$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,873.22 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 34c | 4,294$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.2 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed Yes | 67c | 3,996$2,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,677.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 32c | 2,705$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,834.51 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 63c | 1,968$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.95 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 45c | 1,734$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.12 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed No | 52c | 1,561$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.9 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 37c | 1,391$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.4 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 67c | 1,373$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.1 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 50c | 1,008$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x565a…a8f2backed Yes | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8016…0ff0backed No | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7b…d10fbacked No | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…8391backed Yes | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 35c | 974.34$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.32 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 65c | 840.12$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.1 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 73c | 837.77$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fc…1573backed No | 32c | 800$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…ef98backed Yes | 76c | 785.47$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…ab9bbacked Yes | 61c | 770$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5525…c29cbacked Yes | 50c | 667.3$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 29c | 643.98$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.22 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 54c | 625.95$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.05 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…e3c0backed Yes | 69c | 582.48$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 67c | 575$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.97 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b1…8887backed No | 26c | 520.53$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.19 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…ff8cbacked Yes | 50c | 513.2$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 53c | 500.39$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.9 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…4ee4backed Yes | 66c | 458.85$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 61c | 428.73$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 41c | 423$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.19 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…81fbbacked Yes | 57c | 417.48$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.06 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 38c | 416.34$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.87 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed No | 48c | 412.98$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.79 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 51c | 396.55$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.56 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 54c | 375.56$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f6…1795backed Yes | 53c | 324.45$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed No | 31c | 324.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a42…79ebbacked Yes | 66c | 319$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…1b0bbacked Yes | 51c | 315.98$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.42 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 43c | 314.96$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.8 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 26c | 299.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.99 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 23c | 299.94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.95 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 34c | 284.76$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…5593backed Yes | 53c | 282.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 28c | 274.62$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10fa…10e7backed No | 28c | 273.69$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…1076backed Yes | 74c | 268.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 67c | 266.57$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.34 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed No | 38c | 264.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.35 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 39c | 256$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.16 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…6425backed Yes | 71c | 250$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 37c | 246.71$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.82 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…3cd6backed Yes | 47c | 246$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Yes | 47c | 240$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +184.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 42c | 239.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…ef4dbacked Yes | 61c | 230$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed No | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed No | 46c | 216.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.04 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 47c | 213.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…fcb1backed No | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…f361backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…7280backed Yes | 61c | 199.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…faadbacked No | 30c | 196$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 39c | 193.86$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 54c | 183.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…8d1cbacked No | 57c | 175.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 58c | 173.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.64 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…8411backed Yes | 58c | 171.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 32c | 162.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.05 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a26…a80fbacked Yes | 71c | 155.52$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc30e…db78backed Yes | 67c | 150.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed No | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…aac0backed Yes | 66c | 149.36$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 44c | 146.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.97 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6112…79c6backed Yes | 53c | 142.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 53c | 140$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 72c | 139.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 30c | 136.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 50c | 133.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…0b0cbacked Yes | 77c | 129.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.9wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 26c | 127$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdda1…cc83backed Yes | 48c | 125.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 26c | 124.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.79 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed No | 38c | 115.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 35c | 109.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 105.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 77c | 105.02$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.87 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 67c | 104.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed No | 69c | 102.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe8…0ec5backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1353…d49dbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…664dbacked Yes | 72c | 97.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 30c | 95.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?this page
- Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Dome" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.