Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c94e3106f144785c92aea7d430b1e5b83bb578399e34db428b8577b1435820a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x617d…fd9fbacked Yes | 12c | 5,750$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 55c | 2,954$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.41 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 52c | 2,778$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.37 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 50c | 2,128$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.76 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 28c | 1,629$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.68 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 41c | 1,538$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.93 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed Yes | 68c | 1,458$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.66 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 49c | 1,400$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 50c | 1,250$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…0776backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…542dbacked Yes | 41c | 995$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…6d9cbacked Yes | 48c | 853.84$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 23c | 781.42$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.51 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 26c | 754.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…8b32backed Yes | 46c | 679.82$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce11…0280backed Yes | 46c | 650.12$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 41c | 499$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.59 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…d423backed Yes | 74c | 483.03$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 35c | 433$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.55 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…4b87backed No | 59c | 415$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…abdfbacked No | 59c | 380$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 23c | 380$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.97 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 15c | 380$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 26c | 359.05$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.93 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 72c | 325.02$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.54 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb03a…969cbacked No | 25c | 320$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…b08abacked Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6112…79c6backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked No | 53c | 294.71$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…81fbbacked Yes | 44c | 291$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.66 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed No | 67c | 278$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 40c | 235$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 26c | 207.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.67 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…03b1backed No | 59c | 205$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 75c | 201.43$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.43 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…c06fbacked No | 77c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1099…903cbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e6…bdbcbacked Yes | 75c | 198.23$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0c…d0a4backed Yes | 74c | 196.76$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…b55fbacked No | 63c | 191.34$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 45c | 182.72$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…a8b1backed Yes | 54c | 177.53$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…6cc4backed Yes | 49c | 175$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…0b0cbacked Yes | 59c | 169.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.9wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 24c | 163.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 25c | 162.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.98 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…5030backed No | 26c | 161.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 63c | 158.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…0a2cbacked No | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 26c | 148.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.93 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 68c | 145.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 78c | 145.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +166.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 25c | 143.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.89 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…1b0bbacked No | 67c | 141.34$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Yes | 71c | 141.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa20e…b72abacked No | 21c | 134.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +285.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…a48ebacked Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 40c | 127$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 113$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 19c | 104.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 54c | 100.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7e…d472backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7671…0d2fbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…d7f2backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe448…f5cbbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.25per pick | 57cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…1377backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 19c | 99.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed Yes | 46c | 88.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 79c | 88.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7e…a160backed No | 25c | 81.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 28c | 80.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed No | 63c | 79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 39c | 76.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…8d1cbacked No | 57c | 73.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 38c | 70.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 56c | 68.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Yes | 42c | 58.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked No | 69c | 56.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81b7…f5c9backed Yes | 62c | 54.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed No | 69c | 54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbd…2503backed Yes | 38c | 52.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4383…f17bbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 40c | 52.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…4545backed Yes | 79c | 50.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…6425backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5493…9094backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…6ffdbacked No | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked Yes | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…12fabacked No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 24c | 42.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?this page
- Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Dome" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.