TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xffdd…c06f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
88
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 54 out of 100; worst Commodities at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST3647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10.26
Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$154.9
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+75.4%+$21.5
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$314Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+43.1%+$135.55
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+66.7%+$36
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$56
Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$96.08
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$105.76
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$13.2
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$47.33
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+40.8%+$29
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+475.2%+$562.36
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$57
Will Trump send the national guard to Chicago?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$68.4
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.7
Will Trump visit China before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.7
Trump approval Up or Down this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT+56.2%+$18.61
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$98.75
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.5
Trump approval >45% on August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+72.3%+$96.5
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+113.3%+$26.66
Will Elon register the America Party in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$182.5
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$12.33
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$108.5
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$256
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$57
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$322Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$321.99
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$390
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+150%+$150
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$84.69
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$610Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$390
Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.8
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+568.8%+$66.25
Iran strike on US military by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$63
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+33.3%+$16.75
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$47.98
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+249.1%+$139.15
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$82.23
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$262.79
Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$27.3
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-61%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+376.2%+$79
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OpenAI browser in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$15.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kalen DeBoer be the next permanent head coach of the University of Michigan Football team?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+35.1%+$15.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.