Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6ee77416c0f896e3e081053b14f46d64d46e44936a31b4286d0e2be79b000fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $575,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $586,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $575,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 434 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab71…be8cbacked Yes | 71c | 22,688$16,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,478.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…2280backed Yes | 63c | 14,113$8,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,285.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…3acbbacked Yes | 47c | 13,364$6,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,102.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 43c | 12,154$5,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,199.25 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…61b8backed No | 26c | 10,078$2,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,611.02 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee50…7ed6backed No | 33c | 10,000$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 50c | 9,897$4,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,980.22 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…a0d0backed No | 54c | 9,034$4,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,912.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 62c | 7,890$4,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,986.11 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 16c | 7,885$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,656.38 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f89…d6febacked Yes | 64c | 7,371$4,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,620.13 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…7364backed No | 18c | 7,118$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.43 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked No | 34c | 7,098$2,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,408.07 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…60adbacked Yes | 68c | 6,900$4,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 24c | 6,511$1,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,921.71 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 79c | 5,431$4,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.62 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 74c | 4,802$3,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.76 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab3…dd6dbacked No | 32c | 4,738$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.72 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 39c | 4,310$1,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,701.14 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed Yes | 49c | 3,906$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,991.14 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…bfcdbacked No | 32c | 3,867$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 17c | 3,854$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71bb…74acbacked No | 35c | 3,755$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 35c | 3,287$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.65 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 21c | 3,161$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,487.66 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 22c | 3,148$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.93 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 22c | 3,140$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460.87 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 2,878$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.86 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e03…d5ecbacked Yes | 46c | 2,727$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 63c | 2,723$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.39 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 64c | 2,691$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.16 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…e0a0backed No | 13c | 2,555$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 73c | 2,479$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.2 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 42c | 2,411$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,393.5 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…f0e7backed No | 59c | 2,312$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.58 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…bda6backed No | 49c | 2,286$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f3…05a3backed No | 45c | 2,208$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbda…4faebacked Yes | 45c | 2,165$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71f…43b4backed No | 49c | 1,992$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45a…a03ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,870$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 43c | 1,844$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.34 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c9…02ffbacked No | 65c | 1,837$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5049…6092backed No | 37c | 1,790$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.78 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f4…c918backed No | 11c | 1,756$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 10c | 1,741$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.81 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +10.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…e54bbacked Yes | 61c | 1,709$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…d084backed Yes | 19c | 1,691$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe118…df32backed Yes | 66c | 1,669$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…2a96backed Yes | 55c | 1,589$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…a2cfbacked No | 27c | 1,569$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 33c | 1,528$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…b232backed No | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 28c | 1,488$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.77 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed No | 68c | 1,478$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 20c | 1,476$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.63 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 39c | 1,410$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.17 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…f07cbacked Yes | 60c | 1,345$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.45per pick | 26cpaid | +202.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 46c | 1,330$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.37 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 39c | 1,329$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.37 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 8c | 1,321$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 12c | 1,287$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.88 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +151%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 61c | 1,264$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.08 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb5…2d13backed No | 27c | 1,224$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…2697backed Yes | 59c | 1,179$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.67 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed Yes | 62c | 1,170$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +224.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed No | 36c | 1,125$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.32 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…dbb4backed No | 67c | 1,121$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Yes | 68c | 1,113$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 28c | 1,110$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.49 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 55c | 1,092$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9272…0a19backed Yes | 47c | 1,064$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 57c | 1,063$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.11 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 59c | 1,013$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.39 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…f4a0backed Yes | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…ebcdbacked No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 38c | 988.39$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.06 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb52…d5dfbacked No | 10c | 983.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked No | 34c | 973.95$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.71 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272f…164fbacked Yes | 75c | 949.99$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.71 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +279.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 20c | 943.02$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.22 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 28c | 934.51$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.15 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…50b1backed No | 42c | 898.46$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 58c | 885.39$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.36 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 44c | 881.4$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.77 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked No | 64c | 878.86$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked No | 15c | 874.87$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.96 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 24c | 870.94$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.9 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed No | 34c | 838.36$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.95 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed No | 37c | 812.82$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 9c | 805.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7481…ea37backed No | 37c | 804.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 35c | 797.99$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.21 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…1377backed No | 26c | 797.17$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…d849backed No | 80c | 791.11$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…b06abacked No | 36c | 788.6$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.41 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes | 63c | 768.08$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.19 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 29c | 767.3$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.87 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2c…0273backed No | 79c | 760.68$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8f…5c18backed No | 15c | 720.91$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…f57ebacked No | 24c | 703.43$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?this page
- Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.