Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fae2bbf5d0ef05fac08bfae878942c3f3a3095d4b6f26b3005b9801a86982cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $352,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $381,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $352,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05ec…7158backed No | 1c | 75,121$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…ceb2backed No | 0c | 32,395$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked No | 0c | 26,781$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb52…d5dfbacked No | 1c | 16,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2a…c8c8backed No | 0c | 8,333$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…9518backed No | 0c | 5,379$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd383…c77abacked No | 0c | 5,139$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed No | 0c | 5,018$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…ebcdbacked No | 15c | 3,600$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 17c | 2,896$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.16 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 17c | 2,865$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.85 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 15c | 2,680$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.06 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 2c | 2,509$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed No | 36c | 2,369$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.31 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed No | 1c | 1,956$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f89…d6febacked Yes | 79c | 1,951$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 18c | 1,788$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.16 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 21c | 1,704$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.11 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 70c | 1,630$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.28 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 80c | 1,130$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.84 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 67c | 1,118$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.23 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 65c | 990.55$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.57 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…1377backed No | 10c | 854.74$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 69c | 786.09$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.27 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 613.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa798…8796backed No | 39c | 584.14$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 15c | 575.56$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 77c | 567.81$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.18 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked No | 2c | 530.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ae…33e4backed No | 35c | 520.91$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…fa0fbacked No | 9c | 505.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 72c | 505.67$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 17c | 473.49$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ef…be7bbacked No | 42c | 459.24$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 76c | 457.61$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.03 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +8.6wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 20c | 402.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd783…ec1ebacked No | 18c | 383.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed No | 27c | 368$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 64c | 359.99$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 23c | 356.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44d2…0c43backed No | 12c | 349.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 17c | 322.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 53c | 322.15$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.37 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c9…cef3backed Yes | 79c | 251.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a3…af12backed No | 16c | 247.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed No | 25c | 243.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 115 | 31.3%36 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb26…b5e9backed No | 42c | 202.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 11c | 194.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked No | 27c | 188.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +108%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 183$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc976…0ad5backed No | 24c | 180.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…f5adbacked Yes | 57c | 175.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…3f13backed Yes | 59c | 172.89$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes | 74c | 160$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +10.0wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed No | 10c | 156.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…ec02backed No | 22c | 154.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…c2e9backed No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…1bbebacked No | 33c | 135.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…b06abacked No | 38c | 134.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…1d41backed No | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c60…20f8backed No | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked No | 14c | 131.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 10c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 24c | 129.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 128$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 126.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…433bbacked Yes | 65c | 125.47$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…b8acbacked No | 23c | 115.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +6.2wins | +0.39per pick | 42cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…3d65backed No | 19c | 115.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac4…2e43backed No | 20c | 111.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 21c | 111.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa2…453ebacked No | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf53d…9f2cbacked Yes | 75c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 25c | 106.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…94a3backed No | 14c | 103.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8f…5c18backed No | 10c | 101.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…b64dbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82c1…21aabacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…a2cfbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 18c | 93.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…676ebacked No | 40c | 92.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +87%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 25c | 89.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 28c | 84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb279…d384backed No | 24c | 70.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 15c | 70.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 29c | 67.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…ceb5backed Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x385c…2d95backed No | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffdb…411dbacked No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x736c…2b16backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes | 27c | 54.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed Yes | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424d…c756backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?this page
- Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.