TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda by July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$226,948
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$206,436

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,948 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x52b7…4597backed Yes22c24,497$5,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,356.3912654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x02a4…3b43backed Yes17c14,978$2,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,571.97520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes15c10,209$1,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,501.637740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes9c7,000$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.337610.5%8 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes19c5,494$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.427233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Yes24c5,171$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.8150%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes12c4,670$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.9151138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes8c4,634$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.7742818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No76c3,799$2,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.4948630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35f…9689backed Yes9c3,022$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.631050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No80c2,475$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.77252.8%38 W · 34 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-10.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82dc…aa35backed Yes13c2,311$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.1210%0 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c2,310$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.222078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4c4…a970backed Yes27c2,261$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.8150%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes16c2,092$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.448037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked No78c2,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4406254.8%34 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes11c1,954$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20817347.4%82 W · 91 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c1,739$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.5977636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes9c1,643$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.688617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f7…fa11backed No80c1,512$1,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.987651.3%39 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes20c1,354$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.5789617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes28c1,338$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.634440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe86…a4dfbacked Yes30c1,074$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes19c1,053$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.076942%29 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes14c1,039$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.51402.5%1 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick11cpaid-83.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes17c1,010$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.0411615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes13c999.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13013829%40 W · 98 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid+7.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6734…fd07backed Yes7c999.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703713.5%5 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-63.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed No70c999.91$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.335248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes14c911.06$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.3217931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9f2…0c24backed Yes24c834.81$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002714.8%4 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-40.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5446…fe65backed Yes27c750$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.51910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-71.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked Yes11c730.98$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.283847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes18c705.51$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.614940.9%61 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes9c700$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666136.1%22 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa631…fdddbacked No79c629.8$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.8580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66eb…dc59backed Yes11c618.42$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes7c593.34$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.54663%2 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-95.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes13c571.77$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.335633.9%19 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c562.16$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.871,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes16c550.33$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.225244.2%23 W · 29 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47e8…faeabacked Yes33c547.83$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+111.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes18c537.16$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2611141.4%46 W · 65 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a11…6ef0backed Yes10c533.02$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.85825%2 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+163.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes18c516.74$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.018137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40190%0 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes8c475.3$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.029626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d07…293fbacked Yes19c450.34$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes13c439.65$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8840828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa868…cf1cbacked Yes22c407.93$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.34837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No61c405.8$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.323588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed No80c375$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753860.5%23 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb02e…25e5backed Yes8c362.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.193116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes8c358$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3143212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes7c350$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254912.2%6 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick13cpaid-48.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c53…cba8backed Yes15c322.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-48.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes10c300$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2915324.8%38 W · 115 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac80…ed65backed No80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No70c300$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.7136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6ec…1dadbacked No79c278.33$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.383464.7%22 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No70c250$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.121751.6%112 W · 105 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ea6…b249backed Yes8c237.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198129.6%24 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4afb…4c1fbacked Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x030b…6254backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185633.9%19 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc18f…605abacked Yes16c187.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.029920.2%20 W · 79 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc230…6192backed No76c182.38$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.461346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f8…8cadbacked Yes11c170.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5340%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeca5…6785backed Yes7c163.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e53…63e9backed Yes31c159.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43f8…2903backed Yes14c157.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.113033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd03c…68cfbacked Yes22c151.18$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.912725.9%7 W · 20 L-4.6wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-53.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0417…ddecbacked Yes25c150$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-59.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecef…b593backed No71c150$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.56543.1%28 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94d0…9e65backed No78c150$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.53655.6%20 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20e5…8180backed Yes16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243534.3%12 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes24c143.37$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2347334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffdd…c06fbacked No79c130$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.33243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfdb…7a75backed No78c128.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.061346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bff…63e0backed No78c127.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.851050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-58.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc5a…1ca2backed Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202860.7%17 W · 11 L+6.5wins+0.23per pick38cpaid+37.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked No73c111$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.978139.5%32 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x139d…fe64backed Yes11c111$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.216615.2%10 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes17c110.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6345843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9705…0f43backed No74c108.45$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.451361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa591…9079backed No77c102.5$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.656965.2%45 W · 24 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb906…c281backed Yes24c102.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.95616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-52.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236936.2%25 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.256336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156229%18 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.55827.6%16 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8ad…03ebbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.751233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf803…93fdbacked Yes19c93.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.72650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x310a…4f04backed Yes27c90$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes24c90$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.325518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8392…e3a2backed Yes24c84.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014420.8%30 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x053e…6422backed Yes19c80.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.53per pick33cpaid+183.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x196e…e2ecbacked Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-42.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.