TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5bff…63e0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
60
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 55 out of 100; worst Champions League at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+60.8%+$15.29
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.16
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.17
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.16
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.94
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+200.9%+$424.48
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovicbacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$313.58
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$196.28
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$346Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$345.7
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$153.44
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$112.24
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Djokovic backed Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$99
Wimbledon: Cobolli vs. Djokovic backed Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.94
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Shelton backed Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$105.84
All 14 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid-3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$116.6
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.11
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$551Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+95.7%+$527.93
Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+183.8%+$202.22
Will Switzerland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Estonia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$66
Will Latvia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.04
Will Lithuania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Switzerland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$64.54
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.48
Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.67
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+151.3%+$302.5
Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.8
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+125%+$409.9
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+87.3%+$200.77
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.1
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$105.99
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$988Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$384.3
Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+27.8%+$27.85
Israel military action against Iraq before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$25
All 10 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$809.09
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.93
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will PSG win in regulation?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$62
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.18
Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Arsenal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.27
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-57.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+188.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$107.01
Will Inter Milan win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$148.32
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$199.17
US forces in Venezuela by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$39.87
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$47.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.