Music · resolved market
Will Lithuania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c043135b86cba590aa00fed7255d90cbce31db6aeb76067c8f344f4f55b2b2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1952…c5c8backed Yes | 20c | 2,165$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked No | 80c | 1,410$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.25 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 14c | 1,245$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.74 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02dc…ef17backed Yes | 14c | 1,071$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…af32backed Yes | 15c | 990$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5b…23cabacked Yes | 14c | 847.7$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.68 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 21c | 827.94$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.87 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…ab48backed Yes | 14c | 811.86$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3def…08b4backed Yes | 17c | 642.86$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…9919backed Yes | 19c | 589.06$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.63 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79a7…88c8backed Yes | 18c | 552.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 30cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…5e87backed Yes | 14c | 368.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 13c | 347.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecde…c846backed Yes | 13c | 333$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 66c | 314$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…296ebacked Yes | 14c | 274.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 16cpaid | +208.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2308…4dabbacked Yes | 22c | 252$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd918…2538backed Yes | 19c | 236.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd65…6ac1backed Yes | 14c | 233.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 14c | 220$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…09ebbacked Yes | 16c | 180$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ef…3858backed Yes | 14c | 171.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 154.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…2916backed Yes | 14c | 116.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 13c | 116.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x060b…78f1backed Yes | 14c | 107.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…f529backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…cf6dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…63e0backed Yes | 15c | 97.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…9094backed Yes | 19c | 93.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf404…1b2bbacked Yes | 18c | 84.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 16c | 81.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…6c1cbacked Yes | 23c | 81.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba6…2f9dbacked Yes | 14c | 76.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5f…6cadbacked Yes | 20c | 75.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcb…8889backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e15…27d2backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 15c | 67.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 79c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f9…210dbacked Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lithuania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?this page
- Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Armenia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Australia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Austria finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Azerbaijan finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Belgium finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Croatia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Cyprus finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Czechia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Estonia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Finland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Georgia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Germany finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Greece finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Ireland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Israel finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Latvia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Luxembourg finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Malta finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Montenegro finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Netherlands finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Norway finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Poland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Serbia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Slovenia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Spain finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Switzerland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Ukraine finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will United Kingdom finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.