Music · resolved market

Will Norway finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64855fc83e4e474890a26cccfe806d10f62b270c8326c84aa962bccdcbcc2e50

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 17, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $48,221
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $45,325

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,221 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Music
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb747…b050backed Yes	14c	25,926$3,603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,602.64	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	+3.3wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes	14c	2,222$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.08	47	31.9%15 W · 32 L	-5.4wins	-0.11per pick	43cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f63…c5d0backed Yes	13c	2,129$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.06	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	11c	1,821$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.63	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed3b…7b56backed Yes	15c	1,391$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.26	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3aff…e200backed Yes	15c	1,138$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.77	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.8wins	+0.22per pick	40cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe395…3a53backed Yes	15c	1,053$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.52	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes	12c	1,038$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.24	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-60.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3077…0f2fbacked Yes	15c	674.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.84	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes	14c	571.42$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	65	33.8%22 W · 43 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes	18c	500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	49	46.9%23 W · 26 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x08f4…7700backed Yes	18c	500$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.6	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-85.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes	12c	455$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.45	70	27.1%19 W · 51 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked Yes	12c	399.36$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.75	93	35.5%33 W · 60 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f0…cf6dbacked Yes	16c	384.55$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.09	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1479…487cbacked Yes	18c	277.07$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.96	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+1.7wins	+0.13per pick	17cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes	12c	250$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	44	40.9%18 W · 26 L	+3.3wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe300…3a04backed Yes	15c	240$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes	10c	213.55$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.16	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf176…d466backed Yes	12c	200.85$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff1…de19backed Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	31	0%0 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x598d…5ce7backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb64…4eb4backed Yes	17c	176.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+12%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d9…9695backed Yes	17c	175.01$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.25	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa47c…09f2backed Yes	14c	158.27$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.24	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes	19c	150$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.14per pick	19cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	36	25%9 W · 27 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7050…b4fabacked Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe472…f199backed Yes	15c	135.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+2.0wins	+0.15per pick	23cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb277…d809backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes	13c	117.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x915c…c1a9backed Yes	13c	115.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.19per pick	19cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e6d…3953backed Yes	10c	109.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	23cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe394…5cf0backed Yes	19c	107.89$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9c1…c1b8backed Yes	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5ac…c8fcbacked Yes	17c	102.72$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.8	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+4.1wins	+0.15per pick	39cpaid	+30.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde74…e866backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-79.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe73f…c247backed Yes	13c	84.62$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes	16c	75$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	38cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Norway finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event