Music · resolved market

Will Austria finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x535dda8a256dce845a8b7aa153747d56de329fa4f7a7144814ef7ce1a89766d7

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: May 17, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $193,706
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $201,293

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,706 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Music
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa8e0…1dd2backed No	7c	70,824$4,674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,673.87	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No	6c	15,748$1,015 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,014.64	229	27.9%64 W · 165 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No	6c	14,227$812 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$811.8	66	42.4%28 W · 38 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe6f…f93fbacked No	0c	13,520$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b5a…f431backed No	0c	13,100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.1	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5b…23cabacked No	12c	9,943$1,168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,167.75	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed No	9c	6,000$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.18per pick	29cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked No	8c	4,875$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.25	25	24%6 W · 19 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	+2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2a3…1698backed No	9c	2,246$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.16	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…caefbacked No	12c	2,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed No	3c	1,959$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.66	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No	10c	1,916$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.98	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe98…0befbacked No	3c	1,364$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	8c	1,300$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	70	27.1%19 W · 51 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No	11c	708.01$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.55	77	40.3%31 W · 46 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e1e…49d9backed No	12c	611.23$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.68	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No	13c	580.63$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	65	33.8%22 W · 43 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecde…c846backed No	5c	570$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	50	30%15 W · 35 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed No	2c	500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked No	8c	499.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No	12c	402.26$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.91	199	39.2%78 W · 121 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No	3c	369.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.97	151	19.2%29 W · 122 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No	6c	348.26$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.46	128	35.9%46 W · 82 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44eb…c390backed No	3c	336.9$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc814…dc7cbacked No	11c	329.1$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.2	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3ce…35ccbacked No	5c	289.8$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36ab…248cbacked No	4c	281.95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed No	12c	268.21$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.25	53	20.8%11 W · 42 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e2…da1cbacked No	4c	262.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked No	10c	259.01$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.9	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-4.8wins	-0.24per pick	39cpaid	-77.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x183d…5814backed No	5c	230.4$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c46…a137backed No	13c	226.19$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1664…2babbacked No	9c	220$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe966…c1c2backed No	6c	216.67$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked No	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.75	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No	11c	187.97$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.82	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	12c	175.17$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.65	149	38.9%58 W · 91 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No	8c	173$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.84	47	48.9%23 W · 24 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed No	11c	110$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-19%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	11c	106$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	226	40.3%91 W · 135 L	-10.9wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked No	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+34%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Austria finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event