TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,704
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,965

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,704 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x863d…4770backed Yes2c1,692$29 inLost-$29.41428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4553…f8d6backed Yes9c1,211$109 inLost-$108.96128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c37…92a4backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost-$602030%6 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c02…b7f1backed Yes8c1,000$84 inLost-$84.0950%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes13c770.9$101 inLost-$101.253420.6%7 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes14c638.05$90 inLost-$90.182035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes10c621.27$63 inLost-$63.033923.1%9 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Yes8c554.07$44 inLost-$44.224643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a16…fc6abacked Yes7c342$24 inLost-$23.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe9b…7352backed Yes9c333.33$30 inLost-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ece…b2e7backed Yes17c292.78$50 inLost-$502729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29dd…b0c7backed Yes9c255$23 inLost-$23.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Yes9c250$23 inLost-$22.53330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe73f…c247backed Yes10c210.75$21 inLost-$21911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-74.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes9c200$17 inLost-$17.415119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd33a…7576backed Yes5c200$10 inLost-$101414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes6c180$11 inLost-$114526.7%12 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+191.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf97…91debacked Yes6c172.41$10 inLost-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4726…59edbacked Yes8c168.07$13 inLost-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed Yes9c150$14 inLost-$13.53429.4%10 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes9c110.5$10 inLost-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-43.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38d8…5570backed Yes18c107.81$19 inLost-$19966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+66.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ede…c417backed Yes14c100$14 inLost-$13.91921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-60.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.