TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Ireland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,163
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,013

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,163 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c5,021$18 inLost-$17.634629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb75…446dbacked Yes9c1,230$108 inLost-$107.66540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08f4…7700backed Yes8c548.43$47 inLost-$46.6911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-85.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes5c460$22 inLost-$22.074526.7%12 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+191.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2308…4dabbacked Yes6c380$24 inLost-$24.3140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x65d9…8608backed Yes5c350$16 inLost-$16.21911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-82.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x284a…30edbacked Yes6c346.56$20 inLost-$20825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ed…0055backed Yes7c276.06$19 inLost-$18.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes10c250$25 inLost-$25520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes7c250$17 inLost-$17.477027.1%19 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.