Music · resolved market

Will Cyprus finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb228f230df51a7b4ae2e652db12e9385f9aaf24b517fd21ea54c77f1be6b6f9

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 13, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,623
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,625

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,623 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Music
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x51fd…4272backed Yes	14c	3,267$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.5	229	27.9%64 W · 165 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	25	24%6 W · 19 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	+2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes	16c	475.07$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.26	70	27.1%19 W · 51 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19c1…708fbacked Yes	24c	400.15$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.74	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes	22c	301.11$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.11	199	39.2%78 W · 121 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No	75c	210.15$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.54	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	+3.3wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	21c	140$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	247	32%79 W · 168 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes	16c	121$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.78	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	38cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	20c	100.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.04	163	34.4%56 W · 107 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-82%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe394…5cf0backed Yes	22c	90.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed No	78c	87.17$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.18	43	44.2%19 W · 24 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf385…4864backed Yes	13c	81$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	44	47.7%21 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed Yes	18c	65.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4406…4b19backed No	78c	60.01$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d82…3851backed Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87cd…6f2abacked No	76c	15.46$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.71	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.09per pick	64cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Cyprus finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event