TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Australia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,993
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,502

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,993 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51fd…4272backed Yes14c5,986$859 inLost-$859.4922927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes15c560$84 inLost-$84248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-50.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No77c530$410 inWon+$120.54240.5%17 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08f4…7700backed Yes17c500$85 inLost-$85911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-85.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes20c270$54 inLost-$541827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-40.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c263.71$45 inLost-$44.8324732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60f6…1a29backed Yes19c210.53$40 inLost-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d36…111bbacked Yes22c209.25$45 inLost-$45616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes26c200$52 inLost-$5214938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f6…667dbacked Yes18c110.53$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d6…9cddbacked Yes19c108.39$20 inLost-$20.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+27.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9c1…c1b8backed Yes19c106.58$20 inLost-$203327.3%9 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes20c100$20 inLost-$2019939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes16c100$16 inLost-$16742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+65.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes15c100$15 inLost-$155046%23 W · 27 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd585…a5d4backed Yes16c100$16 inLost-$1620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf97…91debacked Yes21c95.24$20 inLost-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73eb…014dbacked Yes18c83.33$15 inLost-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a0…57f8backed Yes19c78.95$15 inLost-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No80c66$53 inWon+$13.24748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes18c62.5$11 inLost-$11.256533.8%22 W · 43 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd882…0c09backed Yes20c50$10 inLost-$102425%6 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4406…4b19backed No80c50$40 inWon+$103740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No80c29.26$23 inWon+$5.8516334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.